Daily Papers

Common approaches to explainable AI (XAI) for deep learning focus on analyzing the importance of input features on the classification task in a given model: saliency methods like SHAP and GradCAM are used to measure the impact of spatial regions of the input image on the classification result. Combined with ground truth information about the location of the object in the input image (e.g., a binary mask), it is determined whether object pixels had a high impact on the classification result, or whether the classification focused on background pixels. The former is considered to be a sign of a healthy classifier, whereas the latter is assumed to suggest overfitting on spurious correlations. A major challenge, however, is that these intuitive interpretations are difficult to test quantitatively, and hence the output of such explanations lacks an explanation itself. One particular reason is that correlations in real-world data are difficult to avoid, and whether they are spurious or legitimate is debatable. Synthetic data in turn can facilitate to actively enable or disable correlations where desired but often lack a sufficient quantification of realism and stochastic properties. [...] Therefore, we systematically generate six synthetic datasets for the task of traffic sign recognition, which differ only in their degree of camera variation and background correlation [...] to quantify the isolated influence of background correlation, different levels of camera variation, and considered traffic sign shapes on the classification performance, as well as background feature importance. [...] Results include a quantification of when and how much background features gain importance to support the classification task based on changes in the training domain [...]. Download: synset.de/datasets/synset-signset-ger/background-effect

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) achieve strong performance across many multimodal tasks; however, they often exploit spurious object-background correlations, resulting in predictions driven by contextual shortcuts rather than object-relevant visual evidence. Despite growing interest in hallucination and robustness evaluation, existing benchmarks provide limited control over whether model predictions are grounded in the target object or induced by correlated background cues. In this work, we introduce PURGE (Partition-aware Unlearning for Removing spurious-correlation Generated Errors), a framework for constructing, benchmarking, and mitigating spurious-correlation-induced failures in LVLMs. The framework consists of: -- (1) Structured dataset construction wherein we develop three complementary structured data construction strategies that partition examples by object-relevant evidence and spurious background cues, enabling controlled diagnosis of shortcut reliance; and -- (2) Partition-aware unlearning, which uses these partitions to selectively remove spurious object-background associations while preserving object-based reasoning. We evaluate the \algo~framework across multiple LVLMs, including LLaVA-1.6-7B, Qwen3-VL-8B-Instruct, and Qwen3.5-9B, together with CLIP as a vision-language encoder, on a diverse suite of benchmarks, including CHAIR, POPE, Causal-HalBench, MM-SpuBench, AMBER, MMHal, and Waterbirds. Our results show that PURGE consistently reduces hallucinations and spurious-correlation-driven errors while maintaining or improving overall performance in most evaluated settings, providing both a reusable evaluation protocol and an effective mitigation framework for more reliable LVLMs.

Monitoring critically endangered western lowland gorillas is currently hampered by the immense manual effort required to re-identify individuals from vast archives of camera trap footage. The primary obstacle to automating this process has been the lack of large-scale, "in-the-wild" video datasets suitable for training robust deep learning models. To address this gap, we introduce a comprehensive benchmark with three novel datasets: Gorilla-SPAC-Wild, the largest video dataset for wild primate re-identification to date; Gorilla-Berlin-Zoo, for assessing cross-domain re-identification generalization; and Gorilla-SPAC-MoT, for evaluating multi-object tracking in camera trap footage. Building on these datasets, we present GorillaWatch, an end-to-end pipeline integrating detection, tracking, and re-identification. To exploit temporal information, we introduce a multi-frame self-supervised pretraining strategy that leverages consistency in tracklets to learn domain-specific features without manual labels. To ensure scientific validity, a differentiable adaptation of AttnLRP verifies that our model relies on discriminative biometric traits rather than background correlations. Extensive benchmarking subsequently demonstrates that aggregating features from large-scale image backbones outperforms specialized video architectures. Finally, we address unsupervised population counting by integrating spatiotemporal constraints into standard clustering to mitigate over-segmentation. We publicly release all code and datasets to facilitate scalable, non-invasive monitoring of endangered species

Catastrophic forgetting in continual learning (CL) manifests not only as accuracy degradation but also as explanation drift: models maintain predictive accuracy while silently shifting attention from diagnostic features to spurious correlations. This work identifies and resolves a previously overlooked structural flaw in explanation-aware CL: pixel-level saliency regularization derives supervision targets from the model's own frozen saliency maps, creating a self-referential drift loop that actively reinforces spurious attention across tasks. We introduce C^3L (Concept-Consistent Continual Learning), which breaks this loop by anchoring regularization to class-consistent semantic concepts (e.g., ``curved beak'', ``striped pattern'') discovered offline, independent of model state, providing (i) target independence from model drift, and (ii) cross-instance semantic consistency across every instance of a class. We identify that our concept-based objective, combined with approximate LRP relevance conservation, induces a crowding-out effect: since concept and background regions compete for the relevance of the same prediction, enforcing high relevance within concept regions implicitly suppresses spurious background correlations without explicit penalization. \method does not require human-annotated concept sets, as it employs a fully automated concept discovery and spatial grounding. Extensive evaluation across five benchmarks and over 20 baselines demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in accuracy, forgetting, explanation quality, spurious correlation mitigation, and out-of-distribution robustness.

We present the results of simulated injections testing the first Bayesian search-pipeline capable of investigating the angular-structure of a gravitational-wave (GW) background influencing pulsar signals. A stochastic background of GWs from the incoherent superposition of many inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries at nHz frequencies is likely to be the dominant GW signal detectable by pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). Even though one might expect a background composed of a high-redshift cosmological population of sources to be fairly isotropic, deviations from isotropy may be indicative of local GW hotspots or some form of continuous anisotropy in the angular-distribution of GW-power. A GWB induces time-of-arrival deviations in pulsar signals which are correlated between separated pulsars. In an isotropic background this cross-correlation follows a distinctive relationship, known as the Hellings and Downs curve, that depends only on the angular separation of the pulsars. If the background is anisotropic, the cross-correlation is different, but predictable, and also depends on the absolute position of the pulsars. By simulating datasets containing GWBs with various anisotropic configurations, we have explored the prospects for constraining anisotropy using near future data. We find that at moderate to high signal to noise ratio the assumption of isotropy is no longer an appropriate description of the simulated background. Furthermore, we can recover the nature of the injected anisotropy in a Bayesian parameter-estimation search, and propose a prior on the anisotropy search-space motivated by the physicality of the implied distribution of sources.

Query-based universal sound separation is fundamental to intelligent auditory systems, aiming to isolate specific sources from mixtures. Despite recent advances, existing methods continue to suffer from residual interference in complex acoustic scenes. This performance limitation stems largely from a data bottleneck: in-the-wild datasets contain weak labels and severe co-occurrence of events. These flaws induce models to learn spurious correlations between background noise and target categories instead of robust acoustic features. To address this, we propose an automated pipeline that eliminates co-occurrence of events by mining high-purity single-event segments from in-the-wild datasets via a semantically consistent synthesis protocol. Utilizing this pipeline, we constructed Hive, a high-quality synthetic dataset comprising 2.4k hours of raw audio. Experimental results demonstrate that, compared with the state-of-the-art model SAM-Audio which was trained on a huge dataset sim500 times larger than Hive, certain open-source models trained on Hive achieve competitive separation accuracy and perceptual quality. Moreover, these models exhibited remarkable zero-shot generalization on out-of-distribution evaluation benchmarks. These findings highlight that prioritizing purity of supervised signals enables significant data efficiency, offering a new paradigm for training robust auditory foundation models with reduced computational costs. Code and dataset are available at https://shandaai.github.io/Hive.

Deep vision models exploit shortcuts, relying on cues that correlate with supervision signals. Prior work has focused on visible biases, such as object-background or texture correlations. We identify a different source of shortcut learning: invisible metadata traces embedded at the pixel level, for metadata such as image processing and photo acquisition. We hypothesize that large-scale semantic supervision, whether through categorical labels (ImageNet) or billion-scale captions (LAION), naturally induces metadata-semantics correlations during pretraining, leading models to convert low-level signals into predictive features. By introducing controlled metadata-semantics correlations, we show that stronger ones produce systematically higher sensitivity to metadata traces and larger performance degradation under metadata distribution shifts. We further explore mitigation strategies applied during and after pretraining that reduce sensitivity not only to targeted metadata but also to unseen ones, without sacrificing performance on downstream tasks. Metadata sensitivity also has a positive side: it partly explains the strong generated-image detection ability of some encoders, while its mitigation can improve out-of-distribution generalization. Code: https://github.com/ryan-caesar-ramos/visual-encoder-traces

4D millimeter-wave radar has emerged as a promising sensing modality for autonomous driving due to its robustness and affordability. However, its sparse and weak geometric cues make reliable instance activation difficult, limiting the effectiveness of existing radar-camera fusion paradigms. BEV-level fusion offers global scene understanding but suffers from weak instance focus, while perspective-level fusion captures instance details but lacks holistic context. To address these limitations, we propose SIFormer, a scene-instance aware transformer for 3D object detection using 4D radar and camera. SIFormer first suppresses background noise during view transformation through segmentation- and depth-guided localization. It then introduces a cross-view activation mechanism that injects 2D instance cues into BEV space, enabling reliable instance awareness under weak radar geometry. Finally, a transformer-based fusion module aggregates complementary image semantics and radar geometry for robust perception. As a result, with the aim of enhancing instance awareness, SIFormer bridges the gap between the two paradigms, combining their complementary strengths to address inherent sparse nature of radar and improve detection accuracy. Experiments demonstrate that SIFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance on View-of-Delft, TJ4DRadSet and NuScenes datasets. Source code is available at github.com/shawnnnkb/SIFormer.

A stochastic gravitational wave background causes the apparent positions of distant sources to fluctuate, with angular deflections of order the characteristic strain amplitude of the gravitational waves. These fluctuations may be detectable with high precision astrometry, as first suggested by Braginsky et al. in 1990. Several researchers have made order of magnitude estimates of the upper limits obtainable on the gravitational wave spectrum \Omega_gw(f), at frequencies of order f ~ 1 yr^-1, both for the future space-based optical interferometry missions GAIA and SIM, and for VLBI interferometry in radio wavelengths with the SKA. For GAIA, tracking N ~ 10^6 quasars over a time of T ~ 1 yr with an angular accuracy of \Delta \theta ~ 10 \mu as would yield a sensitivity level of \Omega_gw ~ (\Delta \theta)^2/(N T^2 H_0^2) ~ 10^-6, which would be comparable with pulsar timing. In this paper we take a first step toward firming up these estimates by computing in detail the statistical properties of the angular deflections caused by a stochastic background. We compute analytically the two point correlation function of the deflections on the sphere, and the spectrum as a function of frequency and angular scale. The fluctuations are concentrated at low frequencies (for a scale invariant stochastic background), and at large angular scales, starting with the quadrupole. The magnetic-type and electric-type pieces of the fluctuations have equal amounts of power.

Machine learning systems are known to be sensitive to spurious correlations between biased features of the inputs (e.g., background, texture, and secondary objects) and the corresponding labels. These features and their correlations with the labels are known as "spurious" because they tend to change with shifts in real-world data distributions, which can negatively impact the model's generalization and robustness. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of this issue, along with a taxonomy of current state-of-the-art methods for addressing spurious correlations in machine learning models. Additionally, we summarize existing datasets, benchmarks, and metrics to aid future research. The paper concludes with a discussion of the recent advancements and future research challenges in this field, aiming to provide valuable insights for researchers in the related domains.

Detecting a stochastic gravitational wave background, particularly radiation from individually unresolvable super-massive black hole binary systems, is one of the primary targets for Pulsar Timing Arrays. Increasingly more stringent upper limits are being set on these signals under the assumption that the background radiation is isotropic. However, some level of anisotropy may be present and the characterisation of the power at different angular scales carries important information. We show that the standard analysis for isotropic backgrounds can be generalised in a conceptually straightforward way to the case of generic anisotropic background radiation by decomposing the angular distribution of the gravitational wave power on the sky into multipole moments. We introduce the concept of generalised overlap reduction functions which characterise the effect of the anisotropy multipoles on the correlation of the timing residuals from the pulsars timed by a Pulsar Timing Array. In a search for a signal characterised by a generic anisotropy, the generalised overlap reduction functions play the role of the so-called Hellings and Downs curve used for isotropic radiation. We compute the generalised overlap reduction functions for a generic level of anisotropy and Pulsar Timing Array configuration. We also provide an order of magnitude estimate of the level of anisotropy that can be expected in the background generated by super-massive black hole binary systems.

Relativistic jets from active galactic nuclei are expected to exhibit strong redshift evolution in their radiative output due to the increasing energy density of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We investigate the role of inverse Compton (IC) scattering of CMB photons in regulating the radio and X-ray emission from large-scale jets using three-dimensional relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations coupled with a hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian particle framework. By keeping the jet dynamics and ambient medium properties fixed across redshifts, we are able to isolate the impact of the cosmological evolution of the CMB on the jet radiation. From our simulations, we construct synthetic spectral energy distributions and intensity maps considering synchrotron and IC/CMB losses along with particle acceleration from shocks. We are able to reproduce the weak redshift dependence of radio luminosity and the strong enhancement of X-ray emission toward high redshift that is observed in radio-loud quasars. At high redshift, the X-ray luminosity follows the expected (1+z)^4 scaling, confirming IC/CMB as the dominant mechanism driving the X-ray enhancement. The resulting X-ray-to-radio flux ratio increases systematically with redshift and is consistent with observational constraints. Finally, we show that slower jets exhibit a stronger redshift evolution of the X-ray enhancement than faster jets, highlighting the critical role of jet propagation length scales and particle energy evolution. The simulations also naturally reproduce the steepening of the radio spectral index with redshift - the α-z relation - thus providing a unified framework that allows to interpret the multiwavelength properties of high-redshift radio sources.

The global topology of the Universe is a longstanding open question. In this work, we examine the statistical signatures of a positively curved universe with a Friedmann--Lemaitre--Robertson--Walker metric and the topology of a lens space L(p,q). Since these manifolds are generally statistically anisotropic and inhomogeneous, their cosmic microwave background (CMB) covariance matrices contain non-zero off-diagonal entries that depend on observer location. We compute these full harmonic-space covariance matrices for scalar perturbations for arbitrary lens spaces and observer position. Using the Kullback--Leibler divergence, we assess the distinguishability of these spaces from a simply connected three-sphere with the same curvature. The results show that topological signatures can still be significant in a cosmic-variance-limited regime even when the length, d_{rm NC}, of the shortest loop around the Universe through the observer exceeds the diameter, d_{rm LSS}, of the last-scattering surface by up to 10%. This distinguishability depends on the curvature, the lens space and the observer position mainly through the ratio d_{rm NC}/d_{rm LSS}, which is set not only by the curvature radius but also by p, q and the observer location. Therefore, for any value of the spatial curvature, however small, there are lens spaces and observer positions for which 0.985,d_{rm LSS}<d_{rm NC}<1.1,d_{rm LSS}. Such observers would find no matched circles in the CMB large enough to have been detected to date, yet the topology would remain potentially discoverable through its statistical signatures.

Vision Transformers (ViTs) often degrade under distribution shifts because they rely on spurious correlations, such as background cues, rather than semantically meaningful features. Existing regularization methods, typically relying on simple foreground-background masks, which fail to capture the fine-grained semantic concepts that define an object (e.g., ``long beak'' and ``wings'' for a ``bird''). As a result, these methods provide limited robustness to distribution shifts. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel finetuning framework that steers model reasoning toward concept-level semantics. Our approach optimizes the model's internal relevance maps to align with spatially grounded concept masks. These masks are generated automatically, without manual annotation: class-relevant concepts are first proposed using an LLM-based, label-free method, and then segmented using a VLM. The finetuning objective aligns relevance with these concept regions while simultaneously suppressing focus on spurious background areas. Notably, this process requires only a minimal set of images and uses half of the dataset classes. Extensive experiments on five out-of-distribution benchmarks demonstrate that our method improves robustness across multiple ViT-based models. Furthermore, we show that the resulting relevance maps exhibit stronger alignment with semantic object parts, offering a scalable path toward more robust and interpretable vision models. Finally, we confirm that concept-guided masks provide more effective supervision for model robustness than conventional segmentation maps, supporting our central hypothesis.

Neural network classifiers can largely rely on simple spurious features, such as backgrounds, to make predictions. However, even in these cases, we show that they still often learn core features associated with the desired attributes of the data, contrary to recent findings. Inspired by this insight, we demonstrate that simple last layer retraining can match or outperform state-of-the-art approaches on spurious correlation benchmarks, but with profoundly lower complexity and computational expenses. Moreover, we show that last layer retraining on large ImageNet-trained models can also significantly reduce reliance on background and texture information, improving robustness to covariate shift, after only minutes of training on a single GPU.

The robustness of machine learning models can be compromised by spurious correlations between non-causal features in the input data and target labels. A common way to test for such correlations is to train on data where the label is strongly tied to some non-causal cue, then evaluate on examples where that tie no longer holds. This idea is well established for classification tasks, but for semantic segmentation the specific failure modes are not well understood. We show that a model may achieve reasonable overlap while assigning the wrong semantic label, swapping one plausible foreground class for another, even when object boundaries are largely correct. We focus on this semantic label-flip behaviour and quantify it with a simple diagnostic (Flip) that counts how often ground truth foreground pixels are assigned the wrong foreground identity while remaining predicted as foreground. In a setting where category and scene are correlated during training, increasing the correlation consistently widens the gap between common and rare test conditions and increases these within-object label swaps on counterfactual groups. Overall, our results motivate assessing segmentation robustness under distribution shift beyond overlap by decomposing foreground errors into correct pixels, flipped-identity pixels, and missed-to-background pixels. We also propose an entropy-based, ground truth label-free `flip-risk' score, which is computed from foreground identity uncertainty, and show that it can flag flip-prone cases at inference time. Code is available at https://github.com/acharaakshit/label-flips.

Searches for stochastic gravitational-wave backgrounds using pulsar timing arrays look for correlations in the timing residuals induced by the background across the pulsars in the array. The correlation signature of an isotropic, unpolarized gravitational-wave background predicted by general relativity follows the so-called Hellings and Downs curve, which is a relatively simple function of the angle between a pair of Earth-pulsar baselines. In this paper, we give a pedagogical discussion of the Hellings and Downs curve for pulsar timing arrays, considering simpler analogous scenarios involving sound and electromagnetic waves. We calculate Hellings-and-Downs-type functions for these two scenarios and develop a framework suitable for doing more general correlation calculations.

Despite the remarkable progress of deep neural networks (DNNs) in various visual tasks, their vulnerability to adversarial examples raises significant security concerns. Recent adversarial training methods leverage inverse adversarial attacks to generate high-confidence examples, aiming to align adversarial distributions with high-confidence class regions. However, our investigation reveals that under inverse adversarial attacks, high-confidence outputs are influenced by biased feature activations, causing models to rely on background features that lack a causal relationship with the labels. This spurious correlation bias leads to overfitting irrelevant background features during adversarial training, thereby degrading the model's robust performance and generalization capabilities. To address this issue, we propose Debiased High-Confidence Adversarial Training (DHAT), a novel approach that aligns adversarial logits with debiased high-confidence logits and restores proper attention by enhancing foreground logit orthogonality. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DHAT achieves state-of-the-art robustness on both CIFAR and ImageNet-1K benchmarks, while significantly improving generalization by mitigating the feature bias inherent in inverse adversarial training approaches. Code is available at https://github.com/KejiaZhang-Robust/DHAT.

We present FloVD, a novel video diffusion model for camera-controllable video generation. FloVD leverages optical flow to represent the motions of the camera and moving objects. This approach offers two key benefits. Since optical flow can be directly estimated from videos, our approach allows for the use of arbitrary training videos without ground-truth camera parameters. Moreover, as background optical flow encodes 3D correlation across different viewpoints, our method enables detailed camera control by leveraging the background motion. To synthesize natural object motion while supporting detailed camera control, our framework adopts a two-stage video synthesis pipeline consisting of optical flow generation and flow-conditioned video synthesis. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method over previous approaches in terms of accurate camera control and natural object motion synthesis.

Raman spectroscopy is a key tool for graphene characterization, yet its application to graphene grown on silicon carbide (SiC) is strongly limited by the intense and variable second-order Raman response of the substrate. This limitation is critical for buffer layer graphene, a semiconducting interfacial phase, whose vibrational signatures are overlapped with the SiC background and challenging to be reliably accessed using conventional reference-based subtraction, due to strong spatial and experimental variability of the substrate signal. Here we present SpectraFormer, a transformer-based deep learning model that reconstructs the SiC Raman substrate contribution directly from post-growth partially masked spectroscopic data without relying on explicit reference measurements. By learning global correlations across the entire Raman shift range, the model captures the statistical structure of the SiC background and enables accurate reconstruction of its contribution in mixed spectra. Subtraction of the reconstructed substrate signal reveals weak vibrational features associated with ZLG that are inaccessible through conventional analysis methods. The extracted spectra are validated by ab initio vibrational calculations, allowing assignment of the resolved features to specific modes and confirming their physical consistency. By leveraging a state-of-the-art attention-based deep learning architecture, this approach establishes a robust, reference-free framework for Raman analysis of graphene on SiC and provides a foundation, compatible with real-time data acquisition, to its integration into automated, closed-loop AI-assisted growth optimization.

Recent leading zero-shot video object segmentation (ZVOS) works devote to integrating appearance and motion information by elaborately designing feature fusion modules and identically applying them in multiple feature stages. Our preliminary experiments show that with the strong long-range dependency modeling capacity of Transformer, simply concatenating the two modality features and feeding them to vanilla Transformers for feature fusion can distinctly benefit the performance but at a cost of heavy computation. Through further empirical analysis, we find that attention dependencies learned in Transformer in different stages exhibit completely different properties: global query-independent dependency in the low-level stages and semantic-specific dependency in the high-level stages. Motivated by the observations, we propose two Transformer variants: i) Context-Sharing Transformer (CST) that learns the global-shared contextual information within image frames with a lightweight computation. ii) Semantic Gathering-Scattering Transformer (SGST) that models the semantic correlation separately for the foreground and background and reduces the computation cost with a soft token merging mechanism. We apply CST and SGST for low-level and high-level feature fusions, respectively, formulating a level-isomerous Transformer framework for ZVOS task. Compared with the baseline that uses vanilla Transformers for multi-stage fusion, ours significantly increase the speed by 13 times and achieves new state-of-the-art ZVOS performance. Code is available at https://github.com/DLUT-yyc/Isomer.

We investigate the problem of automatically placing an object into a background image for image compositing. Given a background image and a segmented object, the goal is to train a model to predict plausible placements (location and scale) of the object for compositing. The quality of the composite image highly depends on the predicted location/scale. Existing works either generate candidate bounding boxes or apply sliding-window search using global representations from background and object images, which fail to model local information in background images. However, local clues in background images are important to determine the compatibility of placing the objects with certain locations/scales. In this paper, we propose to learn the correlation between object features and all local background features with a transformer module so that detailed information can be provided on all possible location/scale configurations. A sparse contrastive loss is further proposed to train our model with sparse supervision. Our new formulation generates a 3D heatmap indicating the plausibility of all location/scale combinations in one network forward pass, which is over 10 times faster than the previous sliding-window method. It also supports interactive search when users provide a pre-defined location or scale. The proposed method can be trained with explicit annotation or in a self-supervised manner using an off-the-shelf inpainting model, and it outperforms state-of-the-art methods significantly. The user study shows that the trained model generalizes well to real-world images with diverse challenging scenes and object categories.

Existing image synthesis methods for natural scenes focus primarily on foreground control, often reducing the background to simplistic textures. Consequently, these approaches tend to overlook the intrinsic correlation between foreground and background, which may lead to incoherent and unrealistic synthesis results in remote sensing (RS) scenarios. In this paper, we introduce CC-Diff, a textbf{Diff}usion Model-based approach for RS image generation with enhanced textbf{C}ontext textbf{C}oherence. Specifically, we propose a novel Dual Re-sampler for feature extraction, with a built-in `Context Bridge' to explicitly capture the intricate interdependency between foreground and background. Moreover, we reinforce their connection by employing a foreground-aware attention mechanism during the generation of background features, thereby enhancing the plausibility of the synthesized context. Extensive experiments show that CC-Diff outperforms state-of-the-art methods across critical quality metrics, excelling in the RS domain and effectively generalizing to natural images. Remarkably, CC-Diff also shows high trainability, boosting detection accuracy by 1.83 mAP on DOTA and 2.25 mAP on the COCO benchmark.

Recent Pulsar Timing Array datasets provide compelling evidence for a nano-Hertz gravitational-wave background, but robust detection requires characterizing statistical fluctuations of the Hellings-Downs (HD) correlation expected from a finite population of discrete sources. Building on the variance calculation of Allen (2023), we derive the third central moment (skewness) of the HD correlation for a single unpolarized point source and an ensemble of many interfering point sources in the confusion-noise regime. To isolate the intrinsic non-Gaussianity of the background, we extend the pulsar-averaging formalism to third order by introducing a three-point averaged correlation function, which allows us to define the cosmic skewness. We find that the skewness remains non-zero in the large-source-number limit and is controlled by a new geometric three-point function. These results suggest that incorporating higher-order moments could provide additional information on source discreteness beyond standard Gaussian analyses.

We analyze the correlations of the vacuum state of a charged scalar field by constructing localized observables in two disjoint regions. We consider a time-dependent homogeneous electric field and examine the time evolution of correlations by relating it with the particle-antiparticle creation through the Schwinger effect. Our results show that the electric field increases the mixedness of the states and enhances total correlations, while the distillable entanglement among the regions decreases, vanishing at a finite time for sufficiently intense pulses within the non-perturbative pair-production regime. We also discuss the effect of anisotropy induced by the external background, showing that the distribution of correlations acquires a nontrivial directional dependence.

Image harmonization aims to solve the visual inconsistency problem in composited images by adaptively adjusting the foreground pixels with the background as references. Existing methods employ local color transformation or region matching between foreground and background, which neglects powerful proximity prior and independently distinguishes fore-/back-ground as a whole part for harmonization. As a result, they still show a limited performance across varied foreground objects and scenes. To address this issue, we propose a novel Global-aware Kernel Network (GKNet) to harmonize local regions with comprehensive consideration of long-distance background references. Specifically, GKNet includes two parts, \ie, harmony kernel prediction and harmony kernel modulation branches. The former includes a Long-distance Reference Extractor (LRE) to obtain long-distance context and Kernel Prediction Blocks (KPB) to predict multi-level harmony kernels by fusing global information with local features. To achieve this goal, a novel Selective Correlation Fusion (SCF) module is proposed to better select relevant long-distance background references for local harmonization. The latter employs the predicted kernels to harmonize foreground regions with both local and global awareness. Abundant experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method for image harmonization over state-of-the-art methods, \eg, achieving 39.53dB PSNR that surpasses the best counterpart by +0.78dB uparrow; decreasing fMSE/MSE by 11.5\%downarrow/6.7\%downarrow compared with the SoTA method. Code will be available at https://github.com/XintianShen/GKNet{here}.

Ultrasonic acoustic fields have recently been used to generate haptic effects on the human skin as well as to levitate small sub-wavelength size particles. Schlieren imaging and background-oriented schlieren techniques can be used for acoustic wave pattern and beam shape visualization. These techniques exploit variations in the refractive index of a propagation medium by applying refractive optics or cross-correlation algorithms of photographs of illuminated background patterns. Here both background-oriented and traditional schlieren systems are used to visualize the regions of the acoustic power involved in creating dynamic haptic sensations and dynamic levitation traps. We demonstrate for the first time the application of back-ground-oriented schlieren for imaging ultrasonic fields in air. We detail our imaging apparatus and present improved algorithms used to visualize these phenomena that we have produced using multiple phased arrays. Moreover, to improve imaging, we leverage an electronically controlled, high-output LED which is pulsed in synchrony with the ultrasonic carrier frequency.

Human subjective evaluation is the gold standard to evaluate speech quality optimized for human perception. Perceptual objective metrics serve as a proxy for subjective scores. We have recently developed a non-intrusive speech quality metric called Deep Noise Suppression Mean Opinion Score (DNSMOS) using the scores from ITU-T Rec. P.808 subjective evaluation. The P.808 scores reflect the overall quality of the audio clip. ITU-T Rec. P.835 subjective evaluation framework gives the standalone quality scores of speech and background noise in addition to the overall quality. In this work, we train an objective metric based on P.835 human ratings that outputs 3 scores: i) speech quality (SIG), ii) background noise quality (BAK), and iii) the overall quality (OVRL) of the audio. The developed metric is highly correlated with human ratings, with a Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC)=0.94 for SIG and PCC=0.98 for BAK and OVRL. This is the first non-intrusive P.835 predictor we are aware of. DNSMOS P.835 is made publicly available as an Azure service.

Contrastive learning has recently demonstrated great potential for unsupervised pre-training in 3D scene understanding tasks. However, most existing work randomly selects point features as anchors while building contrast, leading to a clear bias toward background points that often dominate in 3D scenes. Also, object awareness and foreground-to-background discrimination are neglected, making contrastive learning less effective. To tackle these issues, we propose a general foreground-aware feature contrast (FAC) framework to learn more effective point cloud representations in pre-training. FAC consists of two novel contrast designs to construct more effective and informative contrast pairs. The first is building positive pairs within the same foreground segment where points tend to have the same semantics. The second is that we prevent over-discrimination between 3D segments/objects and encourage foreground-to-background distinctions at the segment level with adaptive feature learning in a Siamese correspondence network, which adaptively learns feature correlations within and across point cloud views effectively. Visualization with point activation maps shows that our contrast pairs capture clear correspondences among foreground regions during pre-training. Quantitative experiments also show that FAC achieves superior knowledge transfer and data efficiency in various downstream 3D semantic segmentation and object detection tasks.

Weakly supervised semantic segmentation (WSSS) methods are often built on pixel-level localization maps obtained from a classifier. However, training on class labels only, classifiers suffer from the spurious correlation between foreground and background cues (e.g. train and rail), fundamentally bounding the performance of WSSS. There have been previous endeavors to address this issue with additional supervision. We propose a novel source of information to distinguish foreground from the background: Out-of-Distribution (OoD) data, or images devoid of foreground object classes. In particular, we utilize the hard OoDs that the classifier is likely to make false-positive predictions. These samples typically carry key visual features on the background (e.g. rail) that the classifiers often confuse as foreground (e.g. train), so these cues let classifiers correctly suppress spurious background cues. Acquiring such hard OoDs does not require an extensive amount of annotation efforts; it only incurs a few additional image-level labeling costs on top of the original efforts to collect class labels. We propose a method, W-OoD, for utilizing the hard OoDs. W-OoD achieves state-of-the-art performance on Pascal VOC 2012.

Maintaining visual and semantic consistency across frames is a key challenge in text-to-image storytelling. Existing training-free methods, such as One-Prompt-One-Story, concatenate all prompts into a single sequence, which often induces strong embedding correlation and leads to color leakage, background blending, and identity drift. We propose DeCorStory, a training-free inference-time framework that explicitly reduces inter-frame semantic interference. DeCorStory applies Gram-Schmidt prompt embedding decorrelation to orthogonalize frame-level semantics, followed by singular value reweighting to strengthen prompt-specific information and identity-preserving cross-attention to stabilize character identity during diffusion. The method requires no model modification or fine-tuning and can be seamlessly integrated into existing diffusion pipelines. Experiments demonstrate consistent improvements in prompt-image alignment, identity consistency, and visual diversity, achieving state-of-the-art performance among training-free baselines. Code is available at: https://github.com/YuZhenyuLindy/DeCorStory

Anomaly segmentation aims to identify Out-of-Distribution (OoD) anomalous objects within images. Existing pixel-wise methods typically assign anomaly scores individually and employ a global thresholding strategy to segment anomalies. Despite their effectiveness, these approaches encounter significant challenges in real-world applications: (1) neglecting spatial correlations among pixels within the same object, resulting in fragmented segmentation; (2) variabil ity in anomaly score distributions across image regions, causing global thresholds to either generate false positives in background areas or miss segments of anomalous objects. In this work, we introduce OoDDINO, a novel multi-level anomaly segmentation framework designed to address these limitations through a coarse-to-fine anomaly detection strategy. OoDDINO combines an uncertainty-guided anomaly detection model with a pixel-level segmentation model within a two-stage cascade architecture. Initially, we propose an Orthogonal Uncertainty-Aware Fusion Strategy (OUAFS) that sequentially integrates multiple uncertainty metrics with visual representations, employing orthogonal constraints to strengthen the detection model's capacity for localizing anomalous regions accurately. Subsequently, we develop an Adaptive Dual-Threshold Network (ADT-Net), which dynamically generates region-specific thresholds based on object-level detection outputs and pixel-wise anomaly scores. This approach allows for distinct thresholding strategies within foreground and background areas, achieving fine-grained anomaly segmentation. The proposed framework is compatible with other pixel-wise anomaly detection models, which acts as a plug-in to boost the performance. Extensive experiments on two benchmark datasets validate our framework's superiority and compatibility over state-of-the-art methods.

This paper presents the results from point-like neutrino source searches using ten years of IceCube data collected between Apr.~6, 2008 and Jul.~10, 2018. We evaluate the significance of an astrophysical signal from a point-like source looking for an excess of clustered neutrino events with energies typically above sim1,TeV among the background of atmospheric muons and neutrinos. We perform a full-sky scan, a search within a selected source catalog, a catalog population study, and three stacked Galactic catalog searches. The most significant point in the Northern hemisphere from scanning the sky is coincident with the Seyfert II galaxy NGC 1068, which was included in the source catalog search. The excess at the coordinates of NGC 1068 is inconsistent with background expectations at the level of 2.9,σ after accounting for statistical trials. The combination of this result along with excesses observed at the coordinates of three other sources, including TXS 0506+056, suggests that, collectively, correlations with sources in the Northern catalog are inconsistent with background at 3.3,σ significance. These results, all based on searches for a cumulative neutrino signal integrated over the ten years of available data, motivate further study of these and similar sources, including time-dependent analyses, multimessenger correlations, and the possibility of stronger evidence with coming upgrades to the detector.

Recently, the semantics of scene text has been proven to be essential in fine-grained image classification. However, the existing methods mainly exploit the literal meaning of scene text for fine-grained recognition, which might be irrelevant when it is not significantly related to objects/scenes. We propose an end-to-end trainable network that mines implicit contextual knowledge behind scene text image and enhance the semantics and correlation to fine-tune the image representation. Unlike the existing methods, our model integrates three modalities: visual feature extraction, text semantics extraction, and correlating background knowledge to fine-grained image classification. Specifically, we employ KnowBert to retrieve relevant knowledge for semantic representation and combine it with image features for fine-grained classification. Experiments on two benchmark datasets, Con-Text, and Drink Bottle, show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art by 3.72\% mAP and 5.39\% mAP, respectively. To further validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, we create a new dataset on crowd activity recognition for the evaluation. The source code and new dataset of this work are available at https://github.com/lanfeng4659/KnowledgeMiningWithSceneText.

The Stokes V parameter characterizes asymmetry of amplitudes between right- and left-handed waves, and non-vanishing value of the V parameter yields a circularly polarized signal. Cosmologically, V parameter may be a direct probe for parity violation in the universe. In this paper, we theoretically investigate a measurement of this parameter, particularly focusing on the gravitational-wave backgrounds observed via ground-based interferometers. In contrast to the traditional analysis that only considers the total amplitude (or equivalently Omega_{GW}), the signal analysis including a circular-polarized mode has a rich structure due to the multi-dimensionality of target parameters. We show that, by using the network of next-generation detectors, separation between polarized and unpolarized modes can be performed with small statistical loss induced by their correlation.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

The "maximum similarity correlation" definition introduced in this study is motivated by the seminal work of Szekely et al on "distance covariance" (Ann. Statist. 2007, 35: 2769-2794; Ann. Appl. Stat. 2009, 3: 1236-1265). Instead of using Euclidean distances "d" as in Szekely et al, we use "similarity", which can be defined as "exp(-d/s)", where the scaling parameter s>0 controls how rapidly the similarity falls off with distance. Scale parameters are chosen by maximizing the similarity correlation. The motivation for using "similarity" originates in spectral clustering theory (see e.g. Ng et al 2001, Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 14: 849-856). We show that a particular form of similarity correlation is asymptotically equivalent to distance correlation for large values of the scale parameter. Furthermore, we extend similarity correlation to coherence between complex valued vectors, including its partitioning into real and imaginary contributions. Several toy examples are used for comparing distance and similarity correlations. For instance, points on a noiseless straight line give distance and similarity correlation values equal to 1; but points on a noiseless circle produces near zero distance correlation (dCorr=0.02) while the similarity correlation is distinctly non zero (sCorr=0.36). In distinction to the distance approach, similarity gives more importance to small distances, which emphasizes the local properties of functional relations. This paper represents a preliminary empirical study, showing that the novel similarity association has some distinct practical advantages over distance based association.For the sake of reproducible research, the software code implementing all methods here (using lazarus free-pascal "www.lazarus.freepascal.org"), including all test data, are freely available at: "sites.google.com/site/pascualmarqui/home/similaritycovariance".

Models driven by spurious correlations often yield poor generalization performance. We propose the counterfactual (CF) alignment method to detect and quantify spurious correlations of black box classifiers. Our methodology is based on counterfactual images generated with respect to one classifier being input into other classifiers to see if they also induce changes in the outputs of these classifiers. The relationship between these responses can be quantified and used to identify specific instances where a spurious correlation exists. This is validated by observing intuitive trends in face-attribute and waterbird classifiers, as well as by fabricating spurious correlations and detecting their presence, both visually and quantitatively. Furthermore, utilizing the CF alignment method, we demonstrate that we can evaluate robust optimization methods (GroupDRO, JTT, and FLAC) by detecting a reduction in spurious correlations.

Time series clustering promises to uncover hidden structural patterns in data with applications across healthcare, finance, industrial systems, and other critical domains. However, without validated ground truth information, researchers cannot objectively assess clustering quality or determine whether poor results stem from absent structures in the data, algorithmic limitations, or inappropriate validation methods, raising the question whether clustering is "more art than science" (Guyon et al., 2009). To address these challenges, we introduce CSTS (Correlation Structures in Time Series), a synthetic benchmark for evaluating the discovery of correlation structures in multivariate time series data. CSTS provides a clean benchmark that enables researchers to isolate and identify specific causes of clustering failures by differentiating between correlation structure deterioration and limitations of clustering algorithms and validation methods. Our contributions are: (1) a comprehensive benchmark for correlation structure discovery with distinct correlation structures, systematically varied data conditions, established performance thresholds, and recommended evaluation protocols; (2) empirical validation of correlation structure preservation showing moderate distortion from downsampling and minimal effects from distribution shifts and sparsification; and (3) an extensible data generation framework enabling structure-first clustering evaluation. A case study demonstrates CSTS's practical utility by identifying an algorithm's previously undocumented sensitivity to non-normal distributions, illustrating how the benchmark enables precise diagnosis of methodological limitations. CSTS advances rigorous evaluation standards for correlation-based time series clustering.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

Computer vision analysis of camera trap video footage is essential for wildlife conservation, as captured behaviours offer some of the earliest indicators of changes in population health. Recently, several high-impact animal behaviour datasets and methods have been introduced to encourage their use; however, the role of behaviour-correlated background information and its significant effect on out-of-distribution generalisation remain unexplored. In response, we present the PanAf-FGBG dataset, featuring 20 hours of wild chimpanzee behaviours, recorded at over 350 individual camera locations. Uniquely, it pairs every video with a chimpanzee (referred to as a foreground video) with a corresponding background video (with no chimpanzee) from the same camera location. We present two views of the dataset: one with overlapping camera locations and one with disjoint locations. This setup enables, for the first time, direct evaluation of in-distribution and out-of-distribution conditions, and for the impact of backgrounds on behaviour recognition models to be quantified. All clips come with rich behavioural annotations and metadata including unique camera IDs and detailed textual scene descriptions. Additionally, we establish several baselines and present a highly effective latent-space normalisation technique that boosts out-of-distribution performance by +5.42% mAP for convolutional and +3.75% mAP for transformer-based models. Finally, we provide an in-depth analysis on the role of backgrounds in out-of-distribution behaviour recognition, including the so far unexplored impact of background durations (i.e., the count of background frames within foreground videos).

Redundancies and correlations in the responses of sensory neurons seem to waste neural resources but can carry cues about structured stimuli and may help the brain to correct for response errors. To assess how the retina negotiates this tradeoff, we measured simultaneous responses from populations of ganglion cells presented with natural and artificial stimuli that varied greatly in correlation structure. We found that pairwise correlations in the retinal output remained similar across stimuli with widely different spatio-temporal correlations including white noise and natural movies. Meanwhile, purely spatial correlations tended to increase correlations in the retinal response. Responding to more correlated stimuli, ganglion cells had faster temporal kernels and tended to have stronger surrounds. These properties of individual cells, along with gain changes that opposed changes in effective contrast at the ganglion cell input, largely explained the similarity of pairwise correlations across stimuli where receptive field measurements were possible.

Distance correlation is a novel class of multivariate dependence measure, taking positive values between 0 and 1, and applicable to random vectors of arbitrary dimensions, not necessarily equal. It offers several advantages over the well-known Pearson correlation coefficient, the most important is that distance correlation equals zero if and only if the random vectors are independent. There are two different estimators of the distance correlation available in the literature. The first one, proposed by Székely et al. (2007), is based on an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the distance covariance which turns out to be a V-statistic. The second one builds on an unbiased estimator of the distance covariance proposed in Székely et al. (2014), proved to be an U-statistic by Székely and Huo (2016). This study evaluates their efficiency (mean squared error) and compares computational times for both methods under different dependence structures. Under conditions of independence or near-independence, the V-estimates are biased, while the U-estimator frequently cannot be computed due to negative values. To address this challenge, a convex linear combination of the former estimators is proposed and studied, yielding good results regardless of the level of dependence.

Resonant anomaly detection methods have great potential for enhancing the sensitivity of traditional bump hunt searches. A key component of these methods is a high quality background template used to produce an anomaly score. Using the LHC Olympics R&D dataset, we demonstrate that this background template can also be repurposed to directly estimate the background expectation in a simple cut and count setup. In contrast to a traditional bump hunt, no fit to the invariant mass distribution is needed, thereby avoiding the potential problem of background sculpting. Furthermore, direct background estimation allows working with large background rejection rates, where resonant anomaly detection methods typically show their greatest improvement in significance.

Naturally occurring background radiation is a source of correlated decoherence events in superconducting qubits that will challenge error-correction schemes. To characterize the radiation environment in an unshielded laboratory, we performed broadband, spectroscopic measurements of background events in silicon substrates located inside a millikelvin refrigerator, an environment representative of superconducting qubit systems. We measured the background spectra in silicon substrates of two thicknesses, 0.5 mm and 1.5 mm, and obtained the average event rate and the integrated power deposition. In a 25 mm^2 area and the thinner substrate, these values are 0.023 events per second and 4.9 keV/s, counting events that deposit at least 40 keV. We find the background spectrum to be nearly featureless. Its intensity decreases by a factor of 40,000 between 100 keV and 3 MeV for silicon substrates 0.5 mm thick. We find the cryogenic measurements to be in good agreement with predictions based on measurements of the terrestrial gamma-ray flux, published models of cosmic-ray fluxes, a crude model of the cryostat, and radiation-transport simulations. No free parameters are required to predict the background spectra in the silicon substrates. The good agreement between measurements and predictions allow assessment of the relative contributions of terrestrial and cosmic background sources and their dependence on substrate thickness. Our spectroscopic measurements are performed with superconducting microresonators that transduce deposited energy to a readily detectable electrical signal. We find that gamma-ray emissions from radioisotopes are responsible for the majority of events depositing E<1.5 MeV, while nucleons among the cosmic-ray secondary particles cause most events that deposit more energy. These results suggest several paths to reducing the impact of background radiation on quantum circuits.

Correlation does not imply causation, but patterns of statistical association between variables can be exploited to infer a causal structure (even with purely observational data) with the burgeoning field of causal discovery. As a purely observational science, astrophysics has much to gain by exploiting these new methods. The supermassive black hole (SMBH)--galaxy interaction has long been constrained by observed scaling relations, that is low-scatter correlations between variables such as SMBH mass and the central velocity dispersion of stars in a host galaxy's bulge. This study, using advanced causal discovery techniques and an up-to-date dataset, reveals a causal link between galaxy properties and dynamically-measured SMBH masses. We apply a score-based Bayesian framework to compute the exact conditional probabilities of every causal structure that could possibly describe our galaxy sample. With the exact posterior distribution, we determine the most likely causal structures and notice a probable causal reversal when separating galaxies by morphology. In elliptical galaxies, bulge properties (built from major mergers) tend to influence SMBH growth, while in spiral galaxies, SMBHs are seen to affect host galaxy properties, potentially through feedback in gas-rich environments. For spiral galaxies, SMBHs progressively quench star formation, whereas in elliptical galaxies, quenching is complete, and the causal connection has reversed. Our findings support theoretical models of hierarchical assembly of galaxies and active galactic nuclei feedback regulating galaxy evolution. Our study suggests the potentiality for further exploration of causal links in astrophysical and cosmological scaling relations, as well as any other observational science.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Using data from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey, we investigate how galaxy properties correlate with the local environment, focusing on the two southern regions of the survey (G02 and G23) that have not previously been examined in this context. We employ two-point and marked correlation functions to quantify the environmental dependence of galaxy color, stellar mass, luminosity across the u, g, r, J, and K bands, as well as star formation rate (SFR) and specific star formation rate (sSFR). We also assess the impact of redshift incompleteness and cosmic variance on these clustering measurements. Our results show that u-r and g-r colors are most strongly correlated with local overdensity, followed by stellar mass. The sSFR exhibits a clear inverse relationship with density of the environment, consistent with the trend observed for u-band luminosity, which traces young stellar populations. In contrast, galaxies brighter in the g, J, and K bands preferentially inhabit denser regions. By comparing our measurements from the southern regions with those from the equatorial regions of GAMA, we find that cosmic variance does not significantly influence our conclusions. However, redshift incompleteness affects the clustering measurements, as revealed through comparisons of subsets within the G02 region. The measured correlations provide key constraints for models of galaxy assembly across mass and environment, while the environmental trends in color and near-infrared luminosity offer a means to trace stellar mass growth and quenching with redshift.

Camouflage is primarily context-dependent yet current metrics for camouflaged scenarios overlook this critical factor. Instead, these metrics are originally designed for evaluating general or salient objects, with an inherent assumption of uncorrelated spatial context. In this paper, we propose a new contextualized evaluation paradigm, Context-measure, built upon a probabilistic pixel-aware correlation framework. By incorporating spatial dependencies and pixel-wise camouflage quantification, our measure better aligns with human perception. Extensive experiments across three challenging camouflaged object segmentation datasets show that Context-measure delivers more reliability than existing context-independent metrics. Our measure can provide a foundational evaluation benchmark for various computer vision applications involving camouflaged patterns, such as agricultural, industrial, and medical scenarios. Code is available at https://github.com/pursuitxi/Context-measure.

Pre-trained models have revolutionized natural language understanding. However, researchers have found they can encode artifacts undesired in many applications, such as professions correlating with one gender more than another. We explore such gendered correlations as a case study for how to address unintended correlations in pre-trained models. We define metrics and reveal that it is possible for models with similar accuracy to encode correlations at very different rates. We show how measured correlations can be reduced with general-purpose techniques, and highlight the trade offs different strategies have. With these results, we make recommendations for training robust models: (1) carefully evaluate unintended correlations, (2) be mindful of seemingly innocuous configuration differences, and (3) focus on general mitigations.

An industrial process includes many devices, variables, and sub-processes that are physically or electronically interconnected. These interconnections imply some level of correlation between different process variables. Since most of the alarms in a process plant are defined on process variables, alarms are also correlated. However, this can be a nuisance to operators, for one fault might trigger a, sometimes large, number of alarms. So, it is essential to find and correct correlated alarms. In this paper, we study different methods and techniques proposed to measure correlation or similarity between alarms. The similarity indices are first analytically calculated and then studied and compared. The results are also validated using Monte-Carlo simulation.

Quantifying the similarity between two mathematical structures or datasets constitutes a particularly interesting and useful operation in several theoretical and applied problems. Aimed at this specific objective, the Jaccard index has been extensively used in the most diverse types of problems, also motivating some respective generalizations. The present work addresses further generalizations of this index, including its modification into a coincidence index capable of accounting also for the level of relative interiority between the two compared entities, as well as respective extensions for sets in continuous vector spaces, the generalization to multiset addition, densities and generic scalar fields, as well as a means to quantify the joint interdependence between two random variables. The also interesting possibility to take into account more than two sets has also been addressed, including the description of an index capable of quantifying the level of chaining between three structures. Several of the described and suggested eneralizations have been illustrated with respect to numeric case examples. It is also posited that these indices can play an important role while analyzing and integrating datasets in modeling approaches and pattern recognition activities, including as a measurement of clusters similarity or separation and as a resource for representing and analyzing complex networks.

Automated identification of individual animals is moving from small curated studies toward shared benchmarks and reusable foundation models. This progress is useful, but current evaluation leaves the evidence behind a match unresolved, i.e., high retrieval accuracy does not show whether a model used animal features or identity-correlated shortcuts. We address this with Counterfactual Foreground Retrieval (CFR), an evidence-aware evaluation protocol. CFR evaluates the same query-gallery task under different views: full image, foreground-only, and shortcut-only. The full-image measures standard retrieval performance; the foreground-only measures foreground-supported retrieval; and shortcut-only view measure how much identity signal is recoverable from background, or silhouette. This turns a retrieval score into an evidence profile: how well the model performs on the original images, how much of that performance remains when only the animal is visible, and how much identity signal remains recoverable when the animal is removed. We release around 0.5M masks for 34 datasets and code for mask generation and CFR evaluation.

Predicting the dependencies between observations from multiple time series is critical for applications such as anomaly detection, financial risk management, causal analysis, or demand forecasting. However, the computational and numerical difficulties of estimating time-varying and high-dimensional covariance matrices often limits existing methods to handling at most a few hundred dimensions or requires making strong assumptions on the dependence between series. We propose to combine an RNN-based time series model with a Gaussian copula process output model with a low-rank covariance structure to reduce the computational complexity and handle non-Gaussian marginal distributions. This permits to drastically reduce the number of parameters and consequently allows the modeling of time-varying correlations of thousands of time series. We show on several real-world datasets that our method provides significant accuracy improvements over state-of-the-art baselines and perform an ablation study analyzing the contributions of the different components of our model.

Detecting oscillations in solar and stellar time series is complicated by non-stationary red noise and evolving background emission. Methods based on detrending and AR(1)-based wavelet analysis can introduce spurious periodicities and do not adequately describe time-dependent backgrounds. We develop a Bayesian approach that combines the continuous wavelet transform with MCMC sampling to infer a time-dependent background spectrum. The background is represented by a power-law plus white-noise component, with parameters allowed to vary smoothly in time, so that significance levels can be evaluated locally without explicit detrending. Tests with synthetic data show that injected oscillations are recovered reliably, while false detections are suppressed in pure-noise cases. Using a frequency-domain signal-to-noise ratio (S/N), we find that oscillations can be identified robustly when the S/N is greater than or equal to 2 under mixed noise conditions. The detectable period range is limited by wavelet resolution, from about 3-4 sampling intervals up to roughly one-quarter of the total duration. Application to GOES soft X-ray flare observations shows that the method isolates quasi-periodic oscillations with improved temporal localization compared to standard wavelet and Fourier-based approaches. Meanwhile, this behavior is consistent across a range of noise conditions and signal morphologies.

As object detection techniques continue to evolve, understanding their relationships with complementary visual tasks becomes crucial for optimising model architectures and computational resources. This paper investigates the correlations between object detection accuracy and two fundamental visual tasks: depth prediction and visual saliency prediction. Through comprehensive experiments using state-of-the-art models (DeepGaze IIE, Depth Anything, DPT-Large, and Itti's model) on COCO and Pascal VOC datasets, we find that visual saliency shows consistently stronger correlations with object detection accuracy (mArho up to 0.459 on Pascal VOC) compared to depth prediction (mArho up to 0.283). Our analysis reveals significant variations in these correlations across object categories, with larger objects showing correlation values up to three times higher than smaller objects. These findings suggest incorporating visual saliency features into object detection architectures could be more beneficial than depth information, particularly for specific object categories. The observed category-specific variations also provide insights for targeted feature engineering and dataset design improvements, potentially leading to more efficient and accurate object detection systems.

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

Current data-driven approaches for X-ray prohibited items detection remain under-explored, particularly in the design of effective data augmentations. Existing natural image augmentations for reflected light imaging neglect the data characteristics of X-ray security images. Moreover, prior X-ray augmentation methods have predominantly focused on foreground prohibited items, overlooking informative background cues. In this paper, we propose Background Mixup (BGM), a background-based augmentation technique tailored for X-ray security imaging domain. Unlike conventional methods, BGM is founded on an in-depth analysis of physical properties including: 1) X-ray Transmission Imagery: Transmitted X-ray pixels represent composite information from multiple materials along the imaging path. 2) Material-based Pseudo-coloring: Pseudo-coloring in X-ray images correlates directly with material properties, aiding in material distinction. Building upon the above insights, BGM mixes background patches across regions on both 1) texture structure and 2) material variation, to benefit models from complicated background cues. This enhances the model's capability to handle domain-specific challenges such as occlusion-induced discriminative imbalance. Importantly, BGM is orthogonal and fully compatible with existing foreground-focused augmentation techniques, enabling joint use to further enhance detection performance. Extensive experiments on multiple X-ray security benchmarks show that BGM consistently surpasses strong baselines, without additional annotations or significant training overhead. This work pioneers the exploration of background-aware augmentation in X-ray prohibited items detection and provides a lightweight, plug-and-play solution with broad applicability.

Background subtraction is a fundamental task in computer vision with numerous real-world applications, ranging from object tracking to video surveillance. Dynamic backgrounds poses a significant challenge here. Supervised deep learning-based techniques are currently considered state-of-the-art for this task. However, these methods require pixel-wise ground-truth labels, which can be time-consuming and expensive. In this work, we propose a weakly supervised framework that can perform background subtraction without requiring per-pixel ground-truth labels. Our framework is trained on a moving object-free sequence of images and comprises two networks. The first network is an autoencoder that generates background images and prepares dynamic background images for training the second network. The dynamic background images are obtained by thresholding the background-subtracted images. The second network is a U-Net that uses the same object-free video for training and the dynamic background images as pixel-wise ground-truth labels. During the test phase, the input images are processed by the autoencoder and U-Net, which generate background and dynamic background images, respectively. The dynamic background image helps remove dynamic motion from the background-subtracted image, enabling us to obtain a foreground image that is free of dynamic artifacts. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we conducted experiments on selected categories of the CDnet 2014 dataset and the I2R dataset. Our method outperformed all top-ranked unsupervised methods. We also achieved better results than one of the two existing weakly supervised methods, and our performance was similar to the other. Our proposed method is online, real-time, efficient, and requires minimal frame-level annotation, making it suitable for a wide range of real-world applications.

Energy-energy correlators are constructed by averaging the number of charged particle pairs within jets, weighted by the product of their transverse momenta, as a function of the angular separation of the particles within a pair. They are sensitive to a multitude of perturbative and nonperturbative quantum chromodynamics phenomena in high-energy particle collisions. Using lead-lead data recorded with the CMS detector, energy-energy correlators inside high transverse momentum jets are measured in heavy ion collisions for the first time. The data are obtained at a nucleon-nucleon center-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 1.70 nb^{-1}. A similar analysis is done for proton-proton collisions at the same center-of-mass energy to establish a reference. The ratio of lead-lead to proton-proton energy-energy correlators reveals significant jet substructure modifications in the quark-gluon plasma. The results are compared to different models that incorporate either color coherence or medium response effects, where the two effects predict similar substructure modifications.

Image composition involves seamlessly integrating given objects into a specific visual context. Current training-free methods rely on composing attention weights from several samplers to guide the generator. However, since these weights are derived from disparate contexts, their combination leads to coherence confusion and loss of appearance information. These issues worsen with their excessive focus on background generation, even when unnecessary in this task. This not only impedes their swift implementation but also compromises foreground generation quality. Moreover, these methods introduce unwanted artifacts in the transition area. In this paper, we formulate image composition as a subject-based local editing task, solely focusing on foreground generation. At each step, the edited foreground is combined with the noisy background to maintain scene consistency. To address the remaining issues, we propose PrimeComposer, a faster training-free diffuser that composites the images by well-designed attention steering across different noise levels. This steering is predominantly achieved by our Correlation Diffuser, utilizing its self-attention layers at each step. Within these layers, the synthesized subject interacts with both the referenced object and background, capturing intricate details and coherent relationships. This prior information is encoded into the attention weights, which are then integrated into the self-attention layers of the generator to guide the synthesis process. Besides, we introduce a Region-constrained Cross-Attention to confine the impact of specific subject-related tokens to desired regions, addressing the unwanted artifacts shown in the prior method thereby further improving the coherence in the transition area. Our method exhibits the fastest inference efficiency and extensive experiments demonstrate our superiority both qualitatively and quantitatively.

The current version of the Fermi Large Area Telescope data (P8R2) has been publicly available since June 2015, with the caveat that the residual background of all event classes, except ULTRACLEANVETO, was not fully isotropic: it was enhanced by a factor ~2 at 1-3 GeV within ~20 deg of the Ecliptic compared to the poles. By investigating the residual background using data only, we were able to find two sources of residual background: one due to non-interacting heavy ions and one due to cosmic-ray electrons leaking through the ribbons of the Anti-Coincidence Detector, the latter source being responsible for the background anisotropy. A set of simple cuts allows us to reject these events while losing less than 1% of the SOURCE class acceptance. This new selection has been used to produce a new version of the LAT data (P8R3).

Ask a language model the same question about the same document twenty times, and it sometimes returns two different answers. We built Probity, a benchmark of 60 tasks and 470 items from real venture-financing filings, to measure how often this happens. Then we audited our own corpus and found a defect any excerpt-built benchmark can carry: items whose evidence is missing from the window of text the model is shown. The audit flags 36 items and separates two failures a single flag would conflate: evidence genuinely absent from the window and answers that must be computed from numbers the window does supply. Flagged items change their answers far more often, wobbling at 0.255 against 0.087 on the 427 clean items, and excluding them cuts apparent cross-model agreement by about a fifth. Before testing whether the missing evidence explains the instability, we registered a prediction: re-cut each window to hold its evidence, and instability should fall below a set threshold. It failed: the repair moved wobble by 0.058, with an interval containing zero. We report the association as correlational. Almost all measurements sit where instability cannot show, which bounds what a corpus built for accuracy can say about stability. We release the corpus, all 112,800 raw responses, and the audit as a runnable check for any document benchmark.

Deep neural networks often rely on spurious correlations to make predictions, which hinders generalization beyond training environments. For instance, models that associate cats with bed backgrounds can fail to predict the existence of cats in other environments without beds. Mitigating spurious correlations is crucial in building trustworthy models. However, the existing works lack transparency to offer insights into the mitigation process. In this work, we propose an interpretable framework, Discover and Cure (DISC), to tackle the issue. With human-interpretable concepts, DISC iteratively 1) discovers unstable concepts across different environments as spurious attributes, then 2) intervenes on the training data using the discovered concepts to reduce spurious correlation. Across systematic experiments, DISC provides superior generalization ability and interpretability than the existing approaches. Specifically, it outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on an object recognition task and a skin-lesion classification task by 7.5% and 9.6%, respectively. Additionally, we offer theoretical analysis and guarantees to understand the benefits of models trained by DISC. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Wuyxin/DISC.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

By computing the rank correlation between attention weights and feature-additive explanation methods, previous analyses either invalidate or support the role of attention-based explanations as a faithful and plausible measure of salience. To investigate whether this approach is appropriate, we compare LIME, Integrated Gradients, DeepLIFT, Grad-SHAP, Deep-SHAP, and attention-based explanations, applied to two neural architectures trained on single- and pair-sequence language tasks. In most cases, we find that none of our chosen methods agree. Based on our empirical observations and theoretical objections, we conclude that rank correlation does not measure the quality of feature-additive methods. Practitioners should instead use the numerous and rigorous diagnostic methods proposed by the community.

We introduce Correlational Image Modeling (CIM), a novel and surprisingly effective approach to self-supervised visual pre-training. Our CIM performs a simple pretext task: we randomly crop image regions (exemplars) from an input image (context) and predict correlation maps between the exemplars and the context. Three key designs enable correlational image modeling as a nontrivial and meaningful self-supervisory task. First, to generate useful exemplar-context pairs, we consider cropping image regions with various scales, shapes, rotations, and transformations. Second, we employ a bootstrap learning framework that involves online and target encoders. During pre-training, the former takes exemplars as inputs while the latter converts the context. Third, we model the output correlation maps via a simple cross-attention block, within which the context serves as queries and the exemplars offer values and keys. We show that CIM performs on par or better than the current state of the art on self-supervised and transfer benchmarks.

In recent years, open-source efforts like Senorita-2M have propelled video editing toward natural language instruction. However, current publicly available datasets predominantly focus on local editing or style transfer, which largely preserve the original scene structure and are easier to scale. In contrast, Background Replacement, a task central to creative applications such as film production and advertising, requires synthesizing entirely new, temporally consistent scenes while maintaining accurate foreground-background interactions, making large-scale data generation significantly more challenging. Consequently, this complex task remains largely underexplored due to a scarcity of high-quality training data. This gap is evident in poorly performing state-of-the-art models, e.g., Kiwi-Edit, because the primary open-source dataset that contains this task, i.e., OpenVE-3M, frequently produces static, unnatural backgrounds. In this paper, we trace this quality degradation to a lack of precise background guidance during data synthesis. Accordingly, we design a scalable pipeline that generates foreground and background guidance in a decoupled manner with strict quality filtering. Building on this pipeline, we introduce Sparkle, a dataset of ~140K video pairs spanning five common background-change themes, alongside Sparkle-Bench, the largest evaluation benchmark tailored for background replacement to date. Experiments demonstrate that our dataset and the model trained on it achieve substantially better performance than all existing baselines on both OpenVE-Bench and Sparkle-Bench. Our proposed dataset, benchmark, and model are fully open-sourced at https://showlab.github.io/Sparkle/.

Human image animation aims to generate human videos of given characters and backgrounds that adhere to the desired pose sequence. However, existing methods focus more on human actions while neglecting the generation of background, which typically leads to static results or inharmonious movements. The community has explored camera pose-guided animation tasks, yet preparing the camera trajectory is impractical for most entertainment applications and ordinary users. As a remedy, we present an AnimateAnywhere framework, rousing the background in human image animation without requirements on camera trajectories. In particular, based on our key insight that the movement of the human body often reflects the motion of the background, we introduce a background motion learner (BML) to learn background motions from human pose sequences. To encourage the model to learn more accurate cross-frame correspondences, we further deploy an epipolar constraint on the 3D attention map. Specifically, the mask used to suppress geometrically unreasonable attention is carefully constructed by combining an epipolar mask and the current 3D attention map. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our AnimateAnywhere effectively learns the background motion from human pose sequences, achieving state-of-the-art performance in generating human animation results with vivid and realistic backgrounds. The source code and model will be available at https://github.com/liuxiaoyu1104/AnimateAnywhere.

Real-world regression often exhibits shortcuts: attributes that are spuriously correlated with continuous targets in training, yet unreliable under deployment shifts; regressing targets using such shortcuts may fail catastrophically at test time. Existing studies on spurious correlations focus primarily on classification, where labels are categorical and groups are naturally defined. However, many real-world tasks require continuous prediction, where hard label boundaries or discrete group-label pairs do not exist. We define Deep Spurious Regression (DSR) as learning from regression data with attribute-label confounding, addressing continuous spurious correlations, and generalizing to all attribute-label combinations at test time. Motivated by the intrinsic difference between classification and regression shortcuts, we propose to exploit the similarity among spurious attributes in both label and feature spaces, thereby accounting for nearby targets and related groups while calibrating both label and learned feature distributions across attributes. Extensive experiments on common real-world DSR datasets that span computer vision, environmental sensing, and large language model (LLM) regression verify the superior performance of our strategies. Our work fills the gap in benchmarks and techniques for studying spurious correlations in continuous prediction.

Generating video background that tailors to foreground subject motion is an important problem for the movie industry and visual effects community. This task involves synthesizing background that aligns with the motion and appearance of the foreground subject, while also complies with the artist's creative intention. We introduce ActAnywhere, a generative model that automates this process which traditionally requires tedious manual efforts. Our model leverages the power of large-scale video diffusion models, and is specifically tailored for this task. ActAnywhere takes a sequence of foreground subject segmentation as input and an image that describes the desired scene as condition, to produce a coherent video with realistic foreground-background interactions while adhering to the condition frame. We train our model on a large-scale dataset of human-scene interaction videos. Extensive evaluations demonstrate the superior performance of our model, significantly outperforming baselines. Moreover, we show that ActAnywhere generalizes to diverse out-of-distribution samples, including non-human subjects. Please visit our project webpage at https://actanywhere.github.io.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

Stock price forecasting has remained an extremely challenging problem for many decades due to the high volatility of the stock market. Recent efforts have been devoted to modeling complex stock correlations toward joint stock price forecasting. Existing works share a common neural architecture that learns temporal patterns from individual stock series and then mixes up temporal representations to establish stock correlations. However, they only consider time-aligned stock correlations stemming from all the input stock features, which suffer from two limitations. First, stock correlations often occur momentarily and in a cross-time manner. Second, the feature effectiveness is dynamic with market variation, which affects both the stock sequential patterns and their correlations. To address the limitations, this paper introduces MASTER, a MArkert-Guided Stock TransformER, which models the momentary and cross-time stock correlation and leverages market information for automatic feature selection. MASTER elegantly tackles the complex stock correlation by alternatively engaging in intra-stock and inter-stock information aggregation. Experiments show the superiority of MASTER compared with previous works and visualize the captured realistic stock correlation to provide valuable insights.

We introduce a novel method for measuring properties of periodic phenomena with an event camera, a device asynchronously reporting brightness changes at independently operating pixels. The approach assumes that for fast periodic phenomena, in any spatial window where it occurs, a very similar set of events is generated at the time difference corresponding to the frequency of the motion. To estimate the frequency, we compute correlations of spatio-temporal windows in the event space. The period is calculated from the time differences between the peaks of the correlation responses. The method is contactless, eliminating the need for markers, and does not need distinguishable landmarks. We evaluate the proposed method on three instances of periodic phenomena: (i) light flashes, (ii) vibration, and (iii) rotational speed. In all experiments, our method achieves a relative error lower than 0.04%, which is within the error margin of ground truth measurements.

Given a composite image, image harmonization aims to adjust the foreground illumination to be consistent with background. Previous methods have explored transforming foreground features to achieve competitive performance. In this work, we show that using global information to guide foreground feature transformation could achieve significant improvement. Besides, we propose to transfer the foreground-background relation from real images to composite images, which can provide intermediate supervision for the transformed encoder features. Additionally, considering the drawbacks of existing harmonization datasets, we also contribute a ccHarmony dataset which simulates the natural illumination variation. Extensive experiments on iHarmony4 and our contributed dataset demonstrate the superiority of our method. Our ccHarmony dataset is released at https://github.com/bcmi/Image-Harmonization-Dataset-ccHarmony.

Generating long-form storytelling videos with consistent visual narratives remains a significant challenge in video synthesis. We present a novel framework, dataset, and a model that address three critical limitations: background consistency across shots, seamless multi-subject shot-to-shot transitions, and scalability to hour-long narratives. Our approach introduces a background-consistent generation pipeline that maintains visual coherence across scenes while preserving character identity and spatial relationships. We further propose a transition-aware video synthesis module that generates smooth shot transitions for complex scenarios involving multiple subjects entering or exiting frames, going beyond the single-subject limitations of prior work. To support this, we contribute with a synthetic dataset of 10,000 multi-subject transition sequences covering underrepresented dynamic scene compositions. On VBench, InfinityStory achieves the highest Background Consistency (88.94), highest Subject Consistency (82.11), and the best overall average rank (2.80), showing improved stability, smoother transitions, and better temporal coherence.

Imbalanced distributions are ubiquitous in real-world data. They create constraints on Deep Neural Networks to represent the minority labels and avoid bias towards majority labels. The extensive body of imbalanced approaches address categorical label spaces but fail to effectively extend to regression problems where the label space is continuous. Local and global correlations among continuous labels provide valuable insights towards effectively modelling relationships in feature space. In this work, we propose ConR, a contrastive regularizer that models global and local label similarities in feature space and prevents the features of minority samples from being collapsed into their majority neighbours. ConR discerns the disagreements between the label space and feature space and imposes a penalty on these disagreements. ConR addresses the continuous nature of label space with two main strategies in a contrastive manner: incorrect proximities are penalized proportionate to the label similarities and the correct ones are encouraged to model local similarities. ConR consolidates essential considerations into a generic, easy-to-integrate, and efficient method that effectively addresses deep imbalanced regression. Moreover, ConR is orthogonal to existing approaches and smoothly extends to uni- and multi-dimensional label spaces. Our comprehensive experiments show that ConR significantly boosts the performance of all the state-of-the-art methods on four large-scale deep imbalanced regression benchmarks. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/BorealisAI/ConR.

This paper presents a large-scale analysis of the cryptocurrency community on Reddit, shedding light on the intricate relationship between the evolution of their activity, emotional dynamics, and price movements. We analyze over 130M posts on 122 cryptocurrency-related subreddits using temporal analysis, statistical modeling, and emotion detection. While /r/CryptoCurrency and /r/dogecoin are the most active subreddits, we find an overall surge in cryptocurrency-related activity in 2021, followed by a sharp decline. We also uncover a strong relationship in terms of cross-correlation between online activity and the price of various coins, with the changes in the number of posts mostly leading the price changes. Backtesting analysis shows that a straightforward strategy based on the cross-correlation where one buys/sells a coin if the daily number of posts about it is greater/less than the previous would have led to a 3x return on investment. Finally, we shed light on the emotional dynamics of the cryptocurrency communities, finding that joy becomes a prominent indicator during upward market performance, while a decline in the market manifests an increase in anger.

Recent work has sought to understand the behavior of neural networks by comparing representations between layers and between different trained models. We examine methods for comparing neural network representations based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA). We show that CCA belongs to a family of statistics for measuring multivariate similarity, but that neither CCA nor any other statistic that is invariant to invertible linear transformation can measure meaningful similarities between representations of higher dimension than the number of data points. We introduce a similarity index that measures the relationship between representational similarity matrices and does not suffer from this limitation. This similarity index is equivalent to centered kernel alignment (CKA) and is also closely connected to CCA. Unlike CCA, CKA can reliably identify correspondences between representations in networks trained from different initializations.

Given the large-scale multi-modal training of recent vision-based models and their generalization capabilities, understanding the extent of their robustness is critical for their real-world deployment. In this work, we evaluate the resilience of current vision-based models against diverse object-to-background context variations. The majority of robustness evaluation methods have introduced synthetic datasets to induce changes to object characteristics (viewpoints, scale, color) or utilized image transformation techniques (adversarial changes, common corruptions) on real images to simulate shifts in distributions. Recent works have explored leveraging large language models and diffusion models to generate changes in the background. However, these methods either lack in offering control over the changes to be made or distort the object semantics, making them unsuitable for the task. Our method, on the other hand, can induce diverse object-to-background changes while preserving the original semantics and appearance of the object. To achieve this goal, we harness the generative capabilities of text-to-image, image-to-text, and image-to-segment models to automatically generate a broad spectrum of object-to-background changes. We induce both natural and adversarial background changes by either modifying the textual prompts or optimizing the latents and textual embedding of text-to-image models. We produce various versions of standard vision datasets (ImageNet, COCO), incorporating either diverse and realistic backgrounds into the images or introducing color, texture, and adversarial changes in the background. We conduct extensive experiments to analyze the robustness of vision-based models against object-to-background context variations across diverse tasks. Code https://github.com/Muhammad-Huzaifaa/ObjectCompose.

Operational telemetry can be jointly anomalous while every individual stream stays inside its familiar range. TRACE-C is an auditable strictly-prior rank-calibrated detector for aligned multi-stream telemetry: same-regime rolling median/MAD residuals feed three window channels -- a maximum normalized local sum, a Gaussian copula-form dependence contrast on robust-z residuals, and a worst standardized AR(1) innovation -- whose channel ranks are Fisher-aggregated and ranked against earlier aggregates. We evaluate six Great Britain grid streams with a January-April 2019 fit, July-December 2019 development evidence, and a 2020 hold-out frozen before inspection. TRACE-C ranks Storm Atiyah first among 2019 test windows, but a disclosed channel ablation attributes that rank to the local channel, not the copula-form channel: copula-only ranks Atiyah 59th. The short 9 August frequency event is ranked far lower by the fused detector (143) than by the temporal channel alone (40), and reconstruction baselines rank it first. In 2020 no window is selected, which is consistent with record-rule saturation rather than an uneventful year; the highest-ranked frozen window was later interpreted as Storm Ellen. Three interpretive limits carry throughout. The resulting p-values are selection quantities, not event probabilities. The copula-form channel is not a literal copula density: the method applies no probability-integral or normal-score transform. Empirical rank counts are diagnostics, not coverage or false-discovery proofs. Every table and figure in this paper is generated from committed machine-readable reports.

This dataset represents almost all the harmful diseases for rice in Bangladesh. This dataset consists of 1106 image of five harmful diseases called Brown Spot, Leaf Scaled, Rice Blast, Rice Turngo, Steath Blight in two different background variation named field background picture and white background picture. Two different background variation helps the dataset to perform more accurately so that the user can use this data for field use as well as white background for decision making. The data is collected from rice field of Dhaka Division. This dataset can use for rice leaf diseases classification, diseases detection using Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition for different rice leaf disease.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Estimating the depth of objects from a single image is a valuable task for many vision, robotics, and graphics applications. However, current methods often fail to produce accurate depth for objects in diverse scenes. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective Background Prompting strategy that adapts the input object image with a learned background. We learn the background prompts only using small-scale synthetic object datasets. To infer object depth on a real image, we place the segmented object into the learned background prompt and run off-the-shelf depth networks. Background Prompting helps the depth networks focus on the foreground object, as they are made invariant to background variations. Moreover, Background Prompting minimizes the domain gap between synthetic and real object images, leading to better sim2real generalization than simple finetuning. Results on multiple synthetic and real datasets demonstrate consistent improvements in real object depths for a variety of existing depth networks. Code and optimized background prompts can be found at: https://mbaradad.github.io/depth_prompt.

Dataset bias often leads deep learning models to exploit spurious correlations instead of task-relevant signals. We introduce the Standard Anti-Causal Model (SAM), a unifying causal framework that characterizes bias mechanisms and yields a conditional independence criterion for causal stability. Building on this theory, we propose DISCO_m and sDISCO, efficient and scalable estimators of conditional distance correlation that enable independence regularization in gradient-based models. Across six diverse datasets, our methods consistently outperform or are competitive in existing observed bias mitigation approaches, while requiring fewer hyperparameters and scaling seamlessly to multi-bias scenarios. This work bridges causal theory and practical deep learning, providing both a principled foundation and effective tools for robust prediction. Source Code: https://github.com/yakamoz5/DISCO.

Estimating the difficulty of multiple-choice questions would be great help for educators who must spend substantial time creating and piloting stimuli for their tests, and for learners who want to practice. Supervised approaches to difficulty estimation have yielded to date mixed results. In this contribution we leverage an aspect of generative large models which might be seen as a weakness when answering questions, namely their uncertainty, and exploit it towards exploring correlations between two different metrics of uncertainty, and the actual student response distribution. While we observe some present but weak correlations, we also discover that the models' behaviour is different in the case of correct vs wrong answers, and that correlations differ substantially according to the different question types which are included in our fine-grained, previously unused dataset of 451 questions from a Biopsychology course. In discussing our findings, we also suggest potential avenues to further leverage model uncertainty as an additional proxy for item difficulty.

In semantic segmentation, the accuracy of models heavily depends on the high-quality annotations. However, in many practical scenarios such as medical imaging and remote sensing, obtaining true annotations is not straightforward and usually requires significant human labor. Relying on human labor often introduces annotation errors, including mislabeling, omissions, and inconsistency between annotators. In the case of remote sensing, differences in procurement time can lead to misaligned ground truth annotations. These label errors are not independently distributed, and instead usually appear in spatially connected regions where adjacent pixels are more likely to share the same errors. To address these issues, we propose an approximate Bayesian estimation based on a probabilistic model that assumes training data includes label errors, incorporating the tendency for these errors to occur with spatial correlations between adjacent pixels. Bayesian inference requires computing the posterior distribution of label errors, which becomes intractable when spatial correlations are present. We represent the correlation of label errors between adjacent pixels through a Gaussian distribution whose covariance is structured by a Kac-Murdock-Szeg\"{o} (KMS) matrix, solving the computational challenges. Through experiments on multiple segmentation tasks, we confirm that leveraging the spatial correlation of label errors significantly improves performance. Notably, in specific tasks such as lung segmentation, the proposed method achieves performance comparable to training with clean labels under moderate noise levels. Code is available at https://github.com/pfnet-research/Bayesian_SpatialCorr.

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

Formula alpha mining, which generates predictive signals from financial data, is critical for quantitative investment. Although various algorithmic approaches-such as genetic programming, reinforcement learning, and large language models-have significantly expanded the capacity for alpha discovery, systematic evaluation remains a key challenge. Existing evaluation metrics predominantly include backtesting and correlation-based measures. Backtesting is computationally intensive, inherently sequential, and sensitive to specific strategy parameters. Correlation-based metrics, though efficient, assess only predictive ability and overlook other crucial properties such as temporal stability, robustness, diversity, and interpretability. Additionally, the closed-source nature of most existing alpha mining models hinders reproducibility and slows progress in this field. To address these issues, we propose AlphaEval, a unified, parallelizable, and backtest-free evaluation framework for automated alpha mining models. AlphaEval assesses the overall quality of generated alphas along five complementary dimensions: predictive power, stability, robustness to market perturbations, financial logic, and diversity. Extensive experiments across representative alpha mining algorithms demonstrate that AlphaEval achieves evaluation consistency comparable to comprehensive backtesting, while providing more comprehensive insights and higher efficiency. Furthermore, AlphaEval effectively identifies superior alphas compared to traditional single-metric screening approaches. All implementations and evaluation tools are open-sourced to promote reproducibility and community engagement.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Previous work has shown correlations between the hidden states of large language models and fMRI brain responses, on language tasks. These correlations have been taken as evidence of the representational similarity of these models and brain states. This study tests whether these previous results are robust to several possible concerns. Specifically this study shows: (i) that the previous results are still found after dimensionality reduction, and thus are not attributable to the curse of dimensionality; (ii) that previous results are confirmed when using new measures of similarity; (iii) that correlations between brain representations and those from models are specific to models trained on human language; and (iv) that the results are dependent on the presence of positional encoding in the models. These results confirm and strengthen the results of previous research and contribute to the debate on the biological plausibility and interpretability of state-of-the-art large language models.

Causal inference is the practice of estimating the effect of a treatment or intervention from data. It traditionally requires a bespoke pipeline for every new problem: first proposing a causal mechanism, selecting a compatible estimator, and finally training it. Meanwhile, across diverse settings and modalities, much of machine learning has shifted to the paradigm of foundation models: networks pretrained once at scale and applied to new tasks without fine-tuning. Causal foundation models (CFMs) bring this paradigm to causal inference. CFMs are pretrained neural networks that estimate causal quantities, such as the average treatment effect, on entirely new datasets using in-context learning without requiring model updates. This work provides a practical introduction to this emerging area. We summarize the necessary background in causal inference and machine learning before discussing CFMs. Throughout, we include example code and Jupyter notebooks.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

Existing visual tracking methods typically take an image patch as the reference of the target to perform tracking. However, a single image patch cannot provide a complete and precise concept of the target object as images are limited in their ability to abstract and can be ambiguous, which makes it difficult to track targets with drastic variations. In this paper, we propose the CiteTracker to enhance target modeling and inference in visual tracking by connecting images and text. Specifically, we develop a text generation module to convert the target image patch into a descriptive text containing its class and attribute information, providing a comprehensive reference point for the target. In addition, a dynamic description module is designed to adapt to target variations for more effective target representation. We then associate the target description and the search image using an attention-based correlation module to generate the correlated features for target state reference. Extensive experiments on five diverse datasets are conducted to evaluate the proposed algorithm and the favorable performance against the state-of-the-art methods demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed tracking method.

Unfairness in mortgage lending has created generational inequality among racial and ethnic groups in the US. Many studies address this problem, but most existing work focuses on correlation-based techniques. In our work, we use the framework of counterfactual fairness to train fair machine learning models. We propose a new causal graph for the variables available in the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data. We use a matching-based approach instead of the latent variable modeling approach, because the former approach does not rely on any modeling assumptions. Furthermore, matching provides us with counterfactual pairs in which the race variable is isolated. We first demonstrate the unfairness in mortgage approval and interest rates between African-American and non-Hispanic White sub-populations. Then, we show that having balanced data using matching does not guarantee perfect counterfactual fairness of the machine learning models.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Anomaly detection methods can be very useful in identifying unusual or interesting patterns in data. A recently proposed conditional anomaly detection framework extends anomaly detection to the problem of identifying anomalous patterns on a subset of attributes in the data. The anomaly always depends (is conditioned) on the value of remaining attributes. The work presented in this paper focuses on instance-based methods for detecting conditional anomalies. The methods depend heavily on the distance metric that lets us identify examples in the dataset that are most critical for detecting the anomaly. To optimize the performance of such methods we study and devise a metric learning method that learns the distance metric to reflect best the conditional anomaly pattern.

A common practice in unsupervised representation learning is to use labeled data to evaluate the quality of the learned representations. This supervised evaluation is then used to guide critical aspects of the training process such as selecting the data augmentation policy. However, guiding an unsupervised training process through supervised evaluations is not possible for real-world data that does not actually contain labels (which may be the case, for example, in privacy sensitive fields such as medical imaging). Therefore, in this work we show that evaluating the learned representations with a self-supervised image rotation task is highly correlated with a standard set of supervised evaluations (rank correlation > 0.94). We establish this correlation across hundreds of augmentation policies, training settings, and network architectures and provide an algorithm (SelfAugment) to automatically and efficiently select augmentation policies without using supervised evaluations. Despite not using any labeled data, the learned augmentation policies perform comparably with augmentation policies that were determined using exhaustive supervised evaluations.

Foreground map evaluation is crucial for gauging the progress of object segmentation algorithms, in particular in the filed of salient object detection where the purpose is to accurately detect and segment the most salient object in a scene. Several widely-used measures such as Area Under the Curve (AUC), Average Precision (AP) and the recently proposed Fbw have been utilized to evaluate the similarity between a non-binary saliency map (SM) and a ground-truth (GT) map. These measures are based on pixel-wise errors and often ignore the structural similarities. Behavioral vision studies, however, have shown that the human visual system is highly sensitive to structures in scenes. Here, we propose a novel, efficient, and easy to calculate measure known an structural similarity measure (Structure-measure) to evaluate non-binary foreground maps. Our new measure simultaneously evaluates region-aware and object-aware structural similarity between a SM and a GT map. We demonstrate superiority of our measure over existing ones using 5 meta-measures on 5 benchmark datasets.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

Finetuning can cause spurious correlations to arise between non-essential features and the target labels, but benchmarks to study these effects involve contrived settings and narrow tasks. In contrast, we consider spurious correlations in multi-modal Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs) pretrained on extensive and diverse datasets without explicit task supervision. We develop a benchmark by sourcing GPT-4o errors on real-world visual-question-answering (VQA) benchmarks, then curating a subset through LVLM-human annotation and synthetic counterfactual evaluation to identify errors caused by spurious correlations. This process yields SpuriVerse, a novel benchmark comprised of 124 distinct types of spurious correlations extracted from real-world datasets, each containing 1 realistic and 10 synthetic VQA samples for a total of 1364 multiple choice questions. We evaluate 15 open and closed-source LVLMs on SpuriVerse, finding that even state-of-the-art closed-source models struggle significantly, achieving at best only 37.1% accuracy. Fine-tuning on synthetic examples that emphasize the spurious correlation improves performance to 78.40%, suggesting that training on diverse spurious patterns generalizes to unseen situations: models appear to learn to avoid "shortcuts" and attend to the overall image context.

The last decade has seen a marked shift in how the internal structure of hadrons is understood. Modern experimental facilities, new theoretical techniques for the continuum bound-state problem and progress with lattice-regularised QCD have provided strong indications that soft quark+quark (diquark) correlations play a crucial role in hadron physics. For example, theory indicates that the appearance of such correlations is a necessary consequence of dynamical chiral symmetry breaking, viz. a corollary of emergent hadronic mass that is responsible for almost all visible mass in the universe; experiment has uncovered signals for such correlations in the flavour-separation of the proton's electromagnetic form factors; and phenomenology suggests that diquark correlations might be critical to the formation of exotic tetra- and penta-quark hadrons. A broad spectrum of such information is evaluated herein, with a view to consolidating the facts and therefrom moving toward a coherent, unified picture of hadron structure and the role that diquark correlations might play.

Semantic segmentation plays a crucial role in enabling comprehensive scene understanding for robotic systems. However, generating annotations is challenging, requiring labels for every pixel in an image. In scenarios like autonomous driving, there's a need to progressively incorporate new classes as the operating environment of the deployed agent becomes more complex. For enhanced annotation efficiency, ideally, only pixels belonging to new classes would be annotated. This approach is known as Continual Semantic Segmentation (CSS). Besides the common problem of classical catastrophic forgetting in the continual learning setting, CSS suffers from the inherent ambiguity of the background, a phenomenon we refer to as the "background shift'', since pixels labeled as background could correspond to future classes (forward background shift) or previous classes (backward background shift). As a result, continual learning approaches tend to fail. This paper proposes a Backward Background Shift Detector (BACS) to detect previously observed classes based on their distance in the latent space from the foreground centroids of previous steps. Moreover, we propose a modified version of the cross-entropy loss function, incorporating the BACS detector to down-weight background pixels associated with formerly observed classes. To combat catastrophic forgetting, we employ masked feature distillation alongside dark experience replay. Additionally, our approach includes a transformer decoder capable of adjusting to new classes without necessitating an additional classification head. We validate BACS's superior performance over existing state-of-the-art methods on standard CSS benchmarks.

Synthetic data is essential for training foundation models for time series (FMTS), but most generators assume static correlations, and are typically missing realistic inter-channel dependencies. We introduce DynLMC, a Dynamic Linear Model of Coregionalization, that incorporates time-varying, regime-switching correlations and cross-channel lag structures. Our approach produces synthetic multivariate time series with correlation dynamics that closely resemble real data. Fine-tuning three foundational models on DynLMC-generated data yields consistent zero-shot forecasting improvements across nine benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that modeling dynamic inter-channel correlations enhances FMTS transferability, highlighting the importance of data-centric pretraining.

There has been significant debate in the NLP community about whether or not attention weights can be used as an explanation - a mechanism for interpreting how important each input token is for a particular prediction. The validity of "attention as explanation" has so far been evaluated by computing the rank correlation between attention-based explanations and existing feature attribution explanations using LSTM-based models. In our work, we (i) compare the rank correlation between five more recent feature attribution methods and two attention-based methods, on two types of NLP tasks, and (ii) extend this analysis to also include transformer-based models. We find that attention-based explanations do not correlate strongly with any recent feature attribution methods, regardless of the model or task. Furthermore, we find that none of the tested explanations correlate strongly with one another for the transformer-based model, leading us to question the underlying assumption that we should measure the validity of attention-based explanations based on how well they correlate with existing feature attribution explanation methods. After conducting experiments on five datasets using two different models, we argue that the community should stop using rank correlation as an evaluation metric for attention-based explanations. We suggest that researchers and practitioners should instead test various explanation methods and employ a human-in-the-loop process to determine if the explanations align with human intuition for the particular use case at hand.

Pairwise dependence measures such as correlation and causality are fundamental to temporal data mining, yet there is still no principled and robust way to quantify dependence between heterogeneous data types, especially between continuous time series and discrete temporal event sequences. Existing approaches rely on ad hoc transformations or mutual-information estimators that are highly sensitive to quantization, repeated values, and event redundancy, leading to biased or unstable results in practice. We propose a nonparametric mutual information estimator that directly measures the dependence between time series and event sequences without data transformation, learning, or ad hoc discretization. Our method models the continuous-discrete duality of real-world time series to handle quantization and repeated-value artifacts and introduces a latent event clustering strategy to mitigate bias from event co-occurrence and redundancy. Together, these yield a robust and unified framework that bridges discrete and continuous mutual information. We evaluate the proposed estimator on four representative tasks: discrete-continuous time-delayed mutual information for causality analysis, global and local temporal repetition discovery, discrete covariate selection for time series forecasting, and continuous feature selection for classification. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show consistent improvements over existing methods in accuracy, robustness, and interpretability, positioning our approach as a general-purpose dependence operator for heterogeneous temporal data, similar to Pearson correlation for homogeneous time series. Code available at: https://github.com/HaojiHu/Multimodal-Temporal-Data-Quantification

Modern recording techniques enable neuroscientists to simultaneously study neural activity across large populations of neurons, with capturing predictor-dependent correlations being a fundamental challenge in neuroscience. Moreover, the fact that input covariates often lie in restricted subdomains, according to experimental settings, makes inference even more challenging. To address these challenges, we propose a set of nonparametric mean-covariance regression models for high-dimensional neural activity with restricted inputs. These models reduce the dimensionality of neural responses by employing a lower-dimensional latent factor model, where both factor loadings and latent factors are predictor-dependent, to jointly model mean and covariance across covariates. The smoothness of neural activity across experimental conditions is modeled nonparametrically using two Gaussian processes (GPs), applied to both loading basis and latent factors. Additionally, to account for the covariates lying in restricted subspace, we incorporate graph information into the covariance structure. To flexibly infer the model, we use an MCMC algorithm to sample from posterior distributions. After validating and studying the properties of proposed methods by simulations, we apply them to two neural datasets (local field potential and neural spiking data) to demonstrate the usage of models for continuous and counting observations. Overall, the proposed methods provide a framework to jointly model covariate-dependent mean and covariance in high dimensional neural data, especially when the covariates lie in restricted domains. The framework is general and can be easily adapted to various applications beyond neuroscience.

Ensuring equitable treatment (fairness) across protected attributes (such as gender or ethnicity) is a critical issue in machine learning. Most existing literature focuses on binary classification, but achieving fairness in regression tasks-such as insurance pricing or hiring score assessments-is equally important. Moreover, anti-discrimination laws also apply to continuous attributes, such as age, for which many existing methods are not applicable. In practice, multiple protected attributes can exist simultaneously; however, methods targeting fairness across several attributes often overlook so-called "fairness gerrymandering", thereby ignoring disparities among intersectional subgroups (e.g., African-American women or Hispanic men). In this paper, we propose a distance covariance regularisation framework that mitigates the association between model predictions and protected attributes, in line with the fairness definition of demographic parity, and that captures both linear and nonlinear dependencies. To enhance applicability in the presence of multiple protected attributes, we extend our framework by incorporating two multivariate dependence measures based on distance covariance: the previously proposed joint distance covariance (JdCov) and our novel concatenated distance covariance (CCdCov), which effectively address fairness gerrymandering in both regression and classification tasks involving protected attributes of various types. We discuss and illustrate how to calibrate regularisation strength, including a method based on Jensen-Shannon divergence, which quantifies dissimilarities in prediction distributions across groups. We apply our framework to the COMPAS recidivism dataset and a large motor insurance claims dataset.

We develop a transfer learning framework for high-dimensional sparse canonical correlation analysis (CCA) with multiple heterogeneous source datasets. Our goal is to improve estimation of the target canonical coefficient matrices by borrowing information from related sources. We characterize source-target similarity through discrepancies in the joint covariance structure and establish minimax optimal rates under both joint and separate prediction losses, explicitly quantifying the gain from enlarged effective sample size and the cost of heterogeneity. To attain these rates, we first construct an oracle transfer estimator based on debiasing and truncated normalization. We then develop a computationally efficient procedure that adaptively achieves the minimax rate without prior knowledge of the sparsity levels, using aggregation to control transfer bias and a truncated normalization scheme to preserve transfer gains under the scale-sensitive prediction loss. A data-driven source detection procedure is further proposed to identify potentially informative auxiliary datasets. Our analysis also yields a generalized sin-theta perturbation theorem that removes a commonly imposed comparability condition on leading canonical correlations in the sparse CCA problem.

Recent space-borne and ground-based observations provide photometric measurements as time series. The effect of interstellar dust extinction in the near-infrared range is only 10% of that measured in the V band. However, the sensitivity of the light curve shape to the physical parameters in the near-infrared is much lower. So, interpreting these types of data sets requires new approaches like the different large-scale surveys, which create similar problems with big data. Using a selected data set, we provide a method for applying routines implemented in R to extract most information of measurements to determine physical parameters, which can also be used in automatic classification schemes and pipeline processing. We made a multivariate classification of 131 Cepheid light curves (LC) in J, H, and K colors, where all the LCs were represented in 20D parameter space in these colors separately. Performing a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), we got an orthogonal coordinate system and squared Euclidean distances between LCs, with 6 significant eigenvalues, reducing the 20-dimension to 6. We also estimated the optimal number of partitions of similar objects and found it to be equal to 7 in each color; their dependence on the period, absolute magnitude, amplitude, and metallicity are also discussed. We computed the Spearman rank correlations, showing that periods and absolute magnitudes correlate with the first three PCs significantly. The first two PC are also found to have a relationship with the amplitude, but the metallicity effects are only marginal. The method shown can be generalized and implemented in unsupervised classification schemes and analysis of mixed and biased samples. The analysis of our Classical Cepheid near-infrared LC sample showed that the J, H, K curves are insufficient for determination of stellar metallicity, with mass being the key factor shaping them.

We present explicit formulas - that are also computer code - for 101 real-life quantitative trading alphas. Their average holding period approximately ranges 0.6-6.4 days. The average pair-wise correlation of these alphas is low, 15.9%. The returns are strongly correlated with volatility, but have no significant dependence on turnover, directly confirming an earlier result based on a more indirect empirical analysis. We further find empirically that turnover has poor explanatory power for alpha correlations.

Explaining multivariate time series is a compound challenge, as it requires identifying important locations in the time series and matching complex temporal patterns. Although previous saliency-based methods addressed the challenges, their perturbation may not alleviate the distribution shift issue, which is inevitable especially in heterogeneous samples. We present ContraLSP, a locally sparse model that introduces counterfactual samples to build uninformative perturbations but keeps distribution using contrastive learning. Furthermore, we incorporate sample-specific sparse gates to generate more binary-skewed and smooth masks, which easily integrate temporal trends and select the salient features parsimoniously. Empirical studies on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that ContraLSP outperforms state-of-the-art models, demonstrating a substantial improvement in explanation quality for time series data. The source code is available at https://github.com/zichuan-liu/ContraLSP.

Side-channel evaluators routinely inspect leakage tests while acquisition is still running, and extend or stop the campaign based on what they see. Fixed-horizon screening such as the Welch t-test with threshold |t|>4.5 gives no error guarantee for this monitored decision rule. We study anytime-valid leakage detection based on testing by betting: SKIT-type swap-pair e-processes whose false-alarm probability is controlled uniformly over time under an explicit conditional symmetry null. In matched comparisons that share the frozen witness, rows and payoff, first-crossing detection needed 1.68-2.00times the traces of a fixed-horizon randomization test at 80% detection on synthetic streams, and 1.68-2.38times on degraded recordings from an open ML-KEM electromagnetic dataset with the primary Ridge witness at α=0.05. With the same primary witness and level, on undegraded reference and pqm4 recordings the monitored procedure stopped early: its median stopping point was 62-72 and 146-316 evaluation traces, i.e. 2-8% of a conservative 4096-trace budget. Under exact designed nulls on the recorded backgrounds, repeated-look |t|>4.5 screening over all 13000-20000 samples raised a false alarm in 2.7-12.9% of replicates, against 0.0-4.7% for terminal-only screening and no rejection by a sample-wise e-Bonferroni process, which in a prespecified follow-up detected natural-label associations in 4 of 4 backgrounds after 840-3288 traces. All recordings come from one device, and natural-label results are descriptive; we state the assumptions each claim requires.

Continuously learning a variety of audio-video semantics over time is crucial for audio-related reasoning tasks in our ever-evolving world. However, this is a nontrivial problem and poses two critical challenges: sparse spatio-temporal correlation between audio-video pairs and multimodal correlation overwriting that forgets audio-video relations. To tackle this problem, we propose a new continual audio-video pre-training method with two novel ideas: (1) Localized Patch Importance Scoring: we introduce a multimodal encoder to determine the importance score for each patch, emphasizing semantically intertwined audio-video patches. (2) Replay-guided Correlation Assessment: to reduce the corruption of previously learned audiovisual knowledge due to drift, we propose to assess the correlation of the current patches on the past steps to identify the patches exhibiting high correlations with the past steps. Based on the results from the two ideas, we perform probabilistic patch selection for effective continual audio-video pre-training. Experimental validation on multiple benchmarks shows that our method achieves a 3.69%p of relative performance gain in zero-shot retrieval tasks compared to strong continual learning baselines, while reducing memory consumption by ~45%.

Understanding and retrieving related real-world events based on their temporal dynamics is a fundamental challenge in time-sensitive applications such as forecasting, information retrieval, and social analysis. Existing methods often rely on semantic similarity or global time-series alignment, which overlook the transient and directional dependencies that frequently underlie real-world correlations. In this work, we introduce EventConnector, a framework that constructs a temporal event graph capturing localized co-fluctuations and lead-lag relationships between events through their time-series trajectories. We further propose EC-Fusion, an adaptive retrieval mechanism that fuses EventConnector's graph-based scores with a complementary Granger-causal signal via a graph-quality-aware mixing weight. Across two real-world prediction market benchmarks (Polymarket and Kalshi) and nine forecasting architectures evaluated over three random seeds, EC-Fusion is the best non-oracle retrieval method on 17/18 model--dataset cells, reducing RMSE by 6.87% on average (up to 10.86%) over the strongest comparable retrieval baseline, with statistical significance at p < 0.01 after Holm--Bonferroni correction. These results highlight the effectiveness of temporally grounded graph modeling, augmented with causal-signal fusion, in capturing latent event relationships beyond what semantic similarity or traditional alignment techniques can offer.

Multivariate time series forecasting poses an ongoing challenge across various disciplines. Time series data often exhibit diverse intra-series and inter-series correlations, contributing to intricate and interwoven dependencies that have been the focus of numerous studies. Nevertheless, a significant research gap remains in comprehending the varying inter-series correlations across different time scales among multiple time series, an area that has received limited attention in the literature. To bridge this gap, this paper introduces MSGNet, an advanced deep learning model designed to capture the varying inter-series correlations across multiple time scales using frequency domain analysis and adaptive graph convolution. By leveraging frequency domain analysis, MSGNet effectively extracts salient periodic patterns and decomposes the time series into distinct time scales. The model incorporates a self-attention mechanism to capture intra-series dependencies, while introducing an adaptive mixhop graph convolution layer to autonomously learn diverse inter-series correlations within each time scale. Extensive experiments are conducted on several real-world datasets to showcase the effectiveness of MSGNet. Furthermore, MSGNet possesses the ability to automatically learn explainable multi-scale inter-series correlations, exhibiting strong generalization capabilities even when applied to out-of-distribution samples.

Being able to provide explanations for a model's decision has become a central requirement for the development, deployment, and adoption of machine learning models. However, we are yet to understand what explanation methods can and cannot do. How do upstream factors such as data, model prediction, hyperparameters, and random initialization influence downstream explanations? While previous work raised concerns that explanations (E) may have little relationship with the prediction (Y), there is a lack of conclusive study to quantify this relationship. Our work borrows tools from causal inference to systematically assay this relationship. More specifically, we study the relationship between E and Y by measuring the treatment effect when intervening on their causal ancestors, i.e., on hyperparameters and inputs used to generate saliency-based Es or Ys. Our results suggest that the relationships between E and Y is far from ideal. In fact, the gap between 'ideal' case only increase in higher-performing models -- models that are likely to be deployed. Our work is a promising first step towards providing a quantitative measure of the relationship between E and Y, which could also inform the future development of methods for E with a quantitative metric.