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Nov 11

FinDeepIndicator: Benchmarking Deep Research Agents in End-to-End Financial Indicator Construction

Financial indicators are essential tools for transforming raw financial data into interpretable measures for various downstream tasks, such as valuation, risk assessment, and economic analysis. However, existing financial benchmarks largely focus on answer-level accuracy and often assume that relevant data are already provided, leaving the assessment of the intermediate process of indicator construction underexplored. In this work, we propose FinDeepIndicator, the first benchmark dedicated to evaluating Deep Research (DR) agents in end-to-end financial indicator construction. Specifically, FinDeepIndicator evaluates DR agents across four stages in indicator construction: formula specification, data collection, indicator calculation, and answer generation, and covers fundamental, technical, and macroeconomic indicators organized into 21 fine-grained sub-categories. It contains 3,350 curated question-answer (QA) pairs derived from both U.S. and Chinese markets, 10 years of historical financial data, and 800 listed companies. Extensive experiments on search-equipped Large Language Models (LLMs) and DR agents show that, while LLMs generally perform well in formula specification, their accuracy drops substantially during data retrieval and numerical execution. DR agents consistently outperform search-equipped LLMs, yet remain unreliable in realistic financial analysis settings. These findings provide insights for developing more capable and trustworthy DR agents in finance.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 31

Conditional Weight of Evidence for Gradient-Boosted Credit Models: Estimation, Additivity and Its Relation to Adverse Action Reasons

Traditional weight of evidence assigns a credit characteristic a value based on its association with default across a population. Credit analysis also requires an assessment of that characteristic in the context of an individual applicant's record. We study conditional weight of evidence for this purpose. It measures the change in default log odds from observing a characteristic after the remaining credit information is known. Its sign identifies whether the characteristic adds adverse or favorable information for that applicant, and its magnitude measures the strength of that information. The same characteristic value can therefore receive different assessments for applicants with different payment histories or other credit attributes. We develop estimators using gradient-boosted trees and evaluate their accuracy in a bureau-style simulation. Regressions of the full model's predicted probabilities recover conditional evidence more accurately than separate models fitted to default outcomes, provided the full model is accurate. They also recover a deliberately constructed file-age effect whose direction varies with utilization and is often missed by marginal weight of evidence. Local class-frequency estimates improve on marginal weight of evidence but remain inaccurate for some weak effects. An application to FICO HELOC data illustrates estimation when the population evidence is unknown. Conditional weight of evidence provides an applicant-specific interpretation of the information in a credit characteristic; its population summary, a conditional information value, splits the joint information in the record across blocks when averaged over orderings. Neither is an adverse action reason, which explains the fitted score difference between the applicant and chosen passing records.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 16

Do Vision-Language Models Measure Up? Benchmarking Visual Measurement Reading with MeasureBench

Reading measurement instruments is effortless for humans and requires relatively little domain expertise, yet it remains surprisingly challenging for current vision-language models (VLMs) as we find in preliminary evaluation. In this work, we introduce MeasureBench, a benchmark on visual measurement reading covering both real-world and synthesized images of various types of measurements, along with an extensible pipeline for data synthesis. Our pipeline procedurally generates a specified type of gauge with controllable visual appearance, enabling scalable variation in key details such as pointers, scales, fonts, lighting, and clutter. Evaluation on popular proprietary and open-weight VLMs shows that even the strongest frontier VLMs struggle measurement reading in general. A consistent failure mode is indicator localization: models can read digits or labels but misidentify the key positions of pointers or alignments, leading to big numeric errors despite plausible textual reasoning. We have also conducted preliminary experiments with reinforcement learning over synthetic data, and find encouraging results on in-domain synthetic subset but less promising for real-world images. Our analysis highlights a fundamental limitation of current VLMs in fine-grained spatial grounding. We hope this resource can help future advances on visually grounded numeracy and precise spatial perception of VLMs, bridging the gap between recognizing numbers and measuring the world.