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We who are diplomats, we are trained to deal with conflicts between states and issues between states. | æã
å¤äē¤åŽã¯åŊåŽļéãŽį´äēãåéĄãĢ寞åĻããããč¨įˇ´ãããĻããžã |
There is trade, there is disarmament, there is cross-border relations. | č˛ŋæãčģį¸ŽãŽåŊåĸãčļããåéĄãĒãŠãĢ寞åĻããĒããã°ãĒããžãã |
But the picture is changing, and we are seeing that there are new key players coming onto the scene. | ãããįļæŗã¯å¤ããã¤ã¤ããčŋåš´æ°ããä¸åŋäēēįŠéãįģå ´ããĻããžãã |
We loosely call them "" groups. "" They may represent social, religious, political, economic, military realities. | æã
ã¯åŊŧãããããžããĢãéåŖãã¨åŧãã§ããžãåŊŧãã¯ããããį¤žäŧ īŊ¤ åŽææŋæ˛ģ īŊ¤ įĩæ¸ īŊ¤ čģäēãĒãŠãŽåŠåŽŗéĸäŋãäģŖčĄ¨ããĻããĻ |
And we struggle with how to deal with them. | æã
ã¯åŊŧããŽå¯žåĻãĢčĻæ
ŽããĻããžã |
The rules of engagement: how to talk, when to talk, and how to deal with them. | ãã¤ãŠãŽãããĢå¯žčŠąãčĄããŠãŽãããĢååŧããããã§ã |
You see the green is a traditional interstate conflict, the ones we used to read about. | åžæĨããæã
ãĢéĻ´æãŋæˇąãåŊåŽļéãŽį´äēã襨ããĻããžã |
The red is modern conflict, conflicts within states. | čĩ¤č˛ãŽé¨åã¯čŋäģŖãŽį´äēã§ |
These are quite different, and they are outside the grasp of modern diplomacy. | į¯įãčļ
ããĻããããŽã§ã |
And the core of these key actors are groups who represent different interests inside countries. | ãããĻããããŽį´äēãŽä¸åŋįåŊšå˛ãæãããĻãããŽãããããŽåŊã
ãŽä¸ãĢããæ§ã
ãĒåŠåŽŗãäģŖčĄ¨ããéåŖãĒãŽã§ã |
And the way they deal with their conflicts rapidly spreads to other countries. | åŊŧããŽčĄåãããã§ã¯į´äēãäģåŊãĢãæĨéãĢåēãžããžã |
Another acknowledgment we've seen during these years, recent years, is that very few of these domestic interstate, intrastate conflicts can be solved militarily. | ãžãčŋåš´æã
ãééããĻããããä¸ã¤ãŽčĒčã¯å
æĻãããŗåŊåŽļéãŽį´äēãŽããĄ |
They may have to be dealt with with military means, but they cannot be solved by military means. | čģäēįææŽĩãĢé ŧãåŋ
čĻã¯ãããããããžããã |
They need political solutions. | æŋæ˛ģįãĒč§Ŗæąēãåŋ
čĻã¨ãĒããžã |
And we, therefore, have a problem, because they escape traditional diplomacy. | ããããŽéåŖãåžæĨãŽå¤äē¤ãŽæ å¤ãĢãããĻããã¨ãããã¨ã§ã |
And we have among states a reluctance in dealing with them. | ããŽãããĒåéĄãĢ寞åĻãããã¨ãĢæļæĨĩįã§ã |
After 9 / 11, either you were with us or against us. | 9 ãģ 11ãããčĩˇããåžã¯ä¸įã¯æĩã¨åŗæšãĢäēåãããžãã |
It was black or white. | įŊãéģããĢæąēãäģããã |
And groups are very often immediately label terrorists. | ããããéåŖã¯ãã°ãã°åŗåē§ãĢãããĒãšãã¨ãããŦãããĢãč˛ŧãããžãã |
The West, as I would see it, comes out of that decade weakened, because we didn't understand the group. | æŦ§įąŗč̏åŊã¯ããŽ10åš´ã§åŧąäŊåããã¨ããããéåŖãįč§Ŗã§ããĒããŖãããã§ã |
So we've spent more time on focusing on why we should not talk to others than finding out how we talk to others. | æã
ã¯å¯žčŠąãŽæšæŗãæĸãããããĢæŗæãč˛ģãããĻããžããžãã |
You cannot talk to everybody all the time. | ãã¤ã§ãčǰã¨ã§ãå¯žčŠąã§ããããã¯ãĒã |
And sometimes military intervention is necessary. | čģäēäģå
Ĩãåŋ
čĻãĒå ´åããããžã |
I happen to believe that Libya was necessary and that military intervention in Afghanistan was also necessary. | ãĸããŦããšãŋãŗãĢã¤ããĻãåæ§ã§ã |
And my country relies on its security through military alliance, that's clear. | æãåŊãŽåŽå
¨äŋéãčģäēåįãĢé ŧãŖãĻãããã¨ã¯æįŊã§ã |
But still we have a large deficit in dealing with and understanding modern conflict. | ãããããã§ãæã
ã¯čŋäģŖãŽį´äēãĢéĸããĻãŽå¯žåĻã¨įč§ŖãĢ大ããĒæŦ éĨãããããĻããžã |
10 years after that military intervention, that country is far from secure. | čģäēäģå
Ĩãã10åš´ãįĩãĄãžãããããŽåŊã¯åŽåŽã¨ã¯į¨é ãįļæ
ã§ã |
The situation, to be honest, is very serious. | įį´ãĢč¨ãŖãĻäēæ
ã¯æĨĩããĻæˇąåģã§ã |
Now again, the military is necessary, but the military is no problem-solver. | ããŽåŊã§čģéãŽé§įã¯åŋ
čĻã§ããčģéã ãã§ã¯åéĄč§Ŗæąēããžãã |
When I first came to Afghanistan in 2005 as a foreign minister, I met the commander of ISAF, the international troops. | 2005åš´ãĢå¤į¸ã¨ããĻåããĻãĸããŦããšãŋãŗãč¨ĒåããæåŊ鿞ģåŽæ¯æ´é¨é īŧ ISAF īŧ ãŽå¸äģ¤åŽã¨éĸčĢãããžãã |
And he told me that, "" This can be won militarily, minister. | åŊæãŽå¸äģ¤åŽã¯č¨ããžãããå¤į¸æã
ãčžæąåŧˇãããéããã° |
We just have to persevere. "" Now four COM ISAF's later, we hear a different message: "" This cannot be won militarily. | ããããīŧäģŖįŽãŽå¸äģ¤åŽããã¯éãč¨čãčãããžãããčģäēįãĢã¯ååŠãããã¨ã¯ã§ããžãã |
We need military presence, but we need to move to politics. | æŋæ˛ģįč§Ŗæąēãåŋ
čĻã§ã |
We can only solve this through a political solution. | æŋæ˛ģįč§ŖæąēãŽãŋãæąēįãã¤ãããã¨ãã§ãããŽã§ã |
And it is not us who will solve it; Afghans have to solve it. "" But then they need a different political process than the one they were given in 2001, 2002. | ãããĻããŽåéĄãč§ŖæąēãããŽã¯æã
ã§ã¯ãĒããĸããŦããšãŋãŗäēēã§ããããããããĢã¯åŊŧãčĒčēĢãŽæŋæ˛ģåļåēĻãåŋ
čĻã§ |
They need an inclusive process where the real fabric of this very complicated society can deal with their issues. | åŊŧãčĒčēĢãŽåéĄãĢ寞åĻã§ããé常ãĢč¤éãĒį¤žäŧãŽä¸æĸããĒããããĒäēēããĄãĢããå
æŦįãããģãšãåŋ
čĻã¨ãããĻãããŽã§ã |
Everybody seems to agree with that. | äģã¯čǰããčŗåããĻããããã§ãã |
It was very controversial to say three, four, five years ago. | īŧ ~ īŧåš´åãĢã¯æčĻãåãããĻããžãã |
Now everybody agrees. | äģã¯čǰããåæããĻãããã¨ã§ã |
But now, as we prepare to talk, we understand how little we know. | ãããããå¯žčŠąããããã¨ããã¨æã
ãŽįĨčãŽå°ãĒããĢæ°ãĨããžã |
The International Committee of the Red Cross, the ICRC, is talking to everyone, and it is doing so because it is neutral. | čĩ¤åååŊéå§åĄäŧ ICRCã¯ä¸įĢãŽįĢå ´ãåãŖãĻããããčǰã¨ã§ãå¯žčŠąãããĻããžã |
And that's one reason why that organization probably is the best informed key player to understand modern conflict â because they talk. | ããŽãã¨ã ICRCãčŋåš´ãŽį´äēãįč§ŖãããããŽæ
å ąãĢæãéããéčĻãĒåŖäŊã§ãããã¨ãŽåŊŧãã¯å¯žčŠąãããããã§ã |
My point is that you don't have to be neutral to talk. | ãããå¯žčŠąãããéãĢä¸įĢã§ããåŋ
čĻã¯ãããžãã |
And you don't have to agree when you sit down with the other side. | ᏿ã¨åãããŧããĢãĢã¤ããã¨ãåæããåŋ
čĻã¯ãĒããŽã§ã |
And you can always walk. | å¸ãįĢã¤ãã¨ã¯ãã¤ã§ãå¯čŊã§ã |
But if you don't talk, you can't engage the other side. | ãããå¯žčŠąčĒäŊãčĄããĒããã°į¸æå´ã¨éĸãããã¨ãã§ããžãã |
And the other side which you're going to engage is the one with whom you profoundly disagree. | ãžãå¯žčŠąãčĄããã¨ããĻãã᏿ã¯ããĒãã¨åŽå
¨ãĢæčĻãéŖãéãŖãĻããäēēããĄã§ã |
Prime Minister Rabin said when he engaged the Oslo process, "" You don't make peace with your friends, you make peace with your enemies. "" It's hard, but it is necessary. | ãŠããŗå
éĻį¸ã¯ãĒãšãīŊĨãããģãšãĢéĸããŖãéãååšŗã¯åã¨įĩãļãŽã§ã¯ãĒãååšŗã¨ã¯æĩã¨įĩãļããŽã ãã¨č¨ããžããå°éŖã§ããåŋ
čĻãĒãã¨ãĒãŽã§ã |
Let me go one step further. | ãã䏿Šč¸ãŋčžŧãã§čããĻãŋãžããã |
This is Tahrir Square. | ããã¯ãŋããĒãŧãĢåēå ´ã§ã |
There's a revolution going on. | ããã§éŠåŊãé˛čĄããĻããžã |
The Arab Spring is heading into fall and is moving into winter. | ãĸãŠããŽæĨã¯į§ã¨ãĒãåŦãĢãĒããžãã |
It will last for a long, long time. | ããŽéåã¯äģåžéˇæåããã§ããã |
And who knows what it will be called in the end. | ããŽéŠåŊãæįĩįãĢäŊã¨åŧã°ãããã |
That's not the point. | ããã¯éčĻãĒãã¨ã§ã¯ãããžãã |
The point is that we are probably seeing, for the first time in the history of the Arab world, a revolution bottom-up â people's revolution. | éčĻãĒãã¨ã¯ãããæã
ãããããåããĻįŽãĢãããĸãŠãä¸įãŽæ´å˛ä¸åãŽããã ãĸãããŽéŠåŊã§ããæ°čĄä¸ģäŊãŽéŠåŊã ã¨ãããã¨ã§ã |
Social groups are taking to the streets. | į¤žäŧéåŖã¯čĄé ã§ããĸãįš°ãåēããžãã |
And we find out in the West that we know very little about what's happening. | ãããĻæŦ§įąŗč̏åŊã¯äŊãčĩˇããĻãããããģã¨ããŠææĄã§ããĻããĒããã¨ãĢæ°ãĨãããŽã§ã |
Because we never talk to the people in these countries. | ããããåŊãŽäēēã
ã¨ä¸åēĻãå¯žčŠąãããĻããĒããŖãããã§ã |
Most governments followed the dictate of the authoritarian leaders to stay away from these different groups, because they were terrorists. | ãģã¨ããŠãŽæŋåēã¯åŊŧãããããĒãšãã§ããã¨ãã |
So now that they are emerging in the street and we salute the democratic revolution, we find out how little we know. | ãããã¨ã¸ãã叿°ãčĄãĢã¤ãããæ°ä¸ģä¸ģįžŠéŠåŊãĢåéãéãŖãæã
ã¯ãģã¨ããŠäŊãįĨããĒããã¨ãĢæ°ãĨãããŽã§ã |
Right now, the discussion goes, "" Should we talk to the Muslim Brotherhood? | įžå¨ãč°čĢã¯įļããĻããžããæã
ã¯ã ãšãĒã åčåŖã¨å¯žčŠąããšãã īŧ |
Should we talk to Hamas? | ãããšã¨å¯žčŠąããšãã īŧ |
If we talk to them, we may legitimize them. "" I think that is wrong. | å¯žčŠąãčĄãŖããåŊŧããčĒãããã¨ãĢãĒããŽã§ã¯ãĒãããį§ã¯ããã¯čǤãã ã¨æããžã |
If you talk in the right way, you make it very clear that talking is not agreeing. | æŖããæšæŗã§å¯žčŠąãčĄãã°å¯žčŠąã¨åæã¯éããã¨ãæįĸēãĢã§ããžã |
And how can we tell the Muslim Brotherhood, as we should, that they must respect minority rights, if we don't accept majority rights? | ãããĻãĒãĢããæã
ã夿°æ´žãŽæ¨ŠåŠãå°éããĒãã¨ãããã ãšãĒã åčåŖãĢå°æ°æ´žãŽæ¨ŠåŠãå°éããšãã§ãããĒãŠã¨ãŠãããĻč¨ããã¨ãã§ããã§ãããã īŧ |
Because they may turn out to be a majority. | ãĒããĒãåŊŧãã¯äģã夿°æ´žãããããĒããŽã§ã |
How can we escape [having] a double-standard, if we at the same time preach democracy and at the same time don't want to deal with the groups that are representative? | æã
ãããæ°ä¸ģä¸ģįžŠãčĒŦã䏿šã§åŊŧããäģŖčĄ¨ããéåŖã¨ä礿¸ããĒããŽã§ããã°ãããĢãšãŋãŗããŧãã¨č¨ãããĻãåŊįļã§ã |
How will we ever be interlocutors? | ããã§æã
ãæčĄč
ã¨ãããã§ãããã īŧ |
Now my diplomats are instructed to talk to all these groups. | įžå¨æãåŊãŽå¤äē¤åŽã¯ããããããšãĻãŽéåŖã¨å¯žčŠąããããæį¤ēãããĻããžã |
But talking can be done in different ways. | å¯žčŠąãĢã¯æ§ã
ãĒããæšããããžã |
We make a distinction between talking from a diplomatic level and talking at the political level. | æã
ã¯å¤äē¤ãŦããĢã§ãŽå¯žčŠąã¨æŋæ˛ģãŦããĢã§ãŽå¯žčŠąãåēåĨããĻããžã |
Now talking can be accompanied with aid or not with aid. | æ´åŠãäŧ´ãããŽã¨äŧ´ããĒãå¯žčŠąããã |
Talking can be accompanied with inclusion or not inclusion. | å
æŦįãĒããŽã¨å
æŦįã§ãĒãå¯žčŠąããããžã |
There's a big array of the ways of dealing with this. | ãããããã¨ãĢ寞åĻãããããŽæšæŗã¯åŽãĢãããããããŽã§ã |
So if we refuse to talk to these new groups that are going to be dominating the news in years to come, we will further radicalization, I believe. | ããæã
ãããããæ°ããéåŖ âå¯žčŠąãæãã ã¨ããããŠããĒãã§ãããæĨé˛åããããĢäŋãã¨į§ã¯čããĻããžã |
We will make the road from violent activities into politics harder to travel. | æ´åįãĒæ´ģåãæŋæ˛ģãĢå°ããããŽéãããå°éŖãĒããŽãĢããĻããžããžã |
And if we cannot demonstrate to these groups that if you move towards democracy, if you move towards taking part in civilized and normal standards among states, there are some rewards on the other side. | ããæã
ãããããéåŖãĢ寞ããĻæ°ä¸ģä¸ģįžŠãĢį§ģčĄããĻåŊåŽļéãŽæŖå¸¸ã§ææåãããéĸäŋãŽä¸į̝ãæ
ããããĢãĒãã°åŠįããããŽã ã¨į¤ēããã¨ãã§ããĒããã°ãŠããĒãã§ããã īŧ |
The paradox here is that the last decade probably was a lost decade for making progress on this. | ãããĢãããããŠããã¯ãšã¯éåģ10åš´ã¯ããããå¤ä礿ŋįãĢãããå¤ąããã10åš´ã ãŖãã¨ãããã¨ã§ã |
And the paradox is that the decade before the last decade was so promising â and for one reason primarily. | ãĒãããŠããã¯ãšãã¨ããã¨ããŽåãŽ10åš´ã¯åŽããå¤ããããä¸ã¤ãŽåēæĨäēãå¯ä¸ããĻããžã |
And the reason is what happened in South Africa: Nelson Mandela. | ããã¯åãĸããĒãĢãŽããĢãŊãŗīŊĨããŗããŠæ°ã |
When Mandela came out of prison after 27 years of captivity, if he had told his people, "" It's time to take up the arms, it's time to fight, "" he would have been followed. | åŊŧãæ°čĄãĢ寞ããĻãäģããæĻå¨ãåãæĻããŽæããããã¨čĒŦããĻãæ°čĄã¯åŊŧãæ¯æããã§ããã |
And I think the international community would have said, "" Fair enough. | ãããĻåŊéį¤žäŧããžãåŊŧããĢã¯æĻãæ¨ŠåŠããã㨠|
It's their right to fight. "" Now as you know, Mandela didn't do that. | čããã§ãããããããåįĨãŽéãåŊŧã¯ããããžããã§ãã |
In his memoirs, "" Long Road to Freedom, "" he wrote that he survived during those years of captivity because he always decided to look upon his oppressor as also being a human being, also being a human being. | åŊŧãŽčĒäŧãčĒįąã¸ãŽéˇãéããĢããã¨åŊŧãããŽéˇãįä¸įæ´ģãčãæããã¨ãã§ãããŽã¯å¸¸ãĢããčãããã¨ãčĒåãĢčǞããĻããããã§ãããæå§č
ããžãåãäēēéã§ãããã¨ãæå§č
ããžãåãäēēéã§ããã㨠|
So he engaged a political process of dialogue, not as a strategy of the weak, but as a strategy of the strong. | åŊŧã¯æŋæ˛ģįãĒãããģãšã¨ããĻãŽå¯žčŠąãåŧąč
ãŽæĻįĨã¨ããĻã§ã¯ãĒãåŧˇč
ãŽæĻįĨã¨ããĻį¨ããžãã |
And he engaged talking profoundly by settling some of the most tricky issues through a truth and reconciliation process where people came and talked. | åŊŧã¯äēēã
ãéãžãŖãĻå¯žčŠąãããįåŽã¨åč§ŖãŽãããģãšãéããĻããã¤ããŽé常ãĢéŖããåéĄãč§ŖæąēãįŠæĨĩįãĢå¯žčŠąãčĄããžãã |
Now South African friends will know that was very painful. | åãĸããĒãĢãŽäēēã
ã¯ãããé常ãĢčžãéį¨ã§ããŖããã¨ãįĨãã§ããã |
So what can we learn from all of this? | ããããæã
ãåĻãļãã¨ã¯ |
Dialogue is not easy â not between individuals, not between groups, not between governments â but it is very necessary. | å¯žčŠąãčĄããã¨ã¯åŽšæã§ã¯ãĒãåäēē īŊ¤ éåŖ īŊ¤ æŋåēéãŽããããĢãããĻã厚æã§ã¯ãĒããããå¯žčŠąã¯įĩļ寞ãĢåŋ
čĻã ã¨ãããã¨ã§ã |
We have to connect with these profound changes. | å¤äē¤åŽã§ããæã
ã¯ããããæįžŠæˇąãå¤åãĢéĸä¸ããšããĒãŽã§ã |
When I enter into dialogue, I really hope that the other side would pick up my points of view, that I would impress upon them my opinions and my values. | ᏿å´ãį§ãŽä¸ģåŧĩãįč§ŖããĻããããã¨ãæŦåŋããæãã§ããžãããŽéį§ã¯čĒåãŽæčĻã¨äžĄå¤čĻŗãå°čąĄäģãããããĢåŋãããĻããžã |
I cannot do that unless I send the signals that I will be open to listen to the other side's signals. | ããããããããĢã¯åŋãéãį¸æãŽæåŗãčããĻãã |
We need a lot more training on how to do that and a lot more practice on how that can take problem-solving forward. | ãããããã¨ãåŽčˇĩãããĢã¯ãããããŽč¨įˇ´ãåŋ
čĻã§å¯žčŠąãĢããŖãĻåéĄč§Ŗæąēãåé˛ãããᎴįŋãåŋ
čĻã§ã |
We know from our personal experiences that it's easy sometimes just to walk, and sometimes you may need to fight. | čĒåãŽåäēēįãĒäŊé¨ããæãĢã¯ãã å¸ãįĢã¤ãģãã厚æãĒå ´åããããã¨ã¯ãããŖãĻããžããžãæãĢã¯äēãåŋ
čĻãããã§ããã |
And I wouldn't say that is the wrong thing in all circumstances. | ããšãĻãŽįļæŗãĢãããĻãããæĒãã¨ã¯č¨ããžãã |
Sometimes you have to. | æãĢã¯äģãĢæšæŗããĒããã¨ãããã§ããã |
But that strategy seldom takes you very far. | ãããããããæĻįĨã§ã¯é˛åąãčĻããã¨ã¯éŖãããŽã§ã |
And I believe we need to strengthen this approach in modern diplomacy, not only between states, but also within states. | åŧˇåãããåŋ
čĻãããã¨čããĻããžãåŊåŽļéãŽå¯žčŠąã ãã§ãĒãåŊå
ãŽå¯žčŠąãĢãããĻãã§ã |
We are seeing some new signs. | æ°ããå
ããčĻããĻããĻããžã |
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